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Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels: Economics

From near parity in India to ten times dearer jet fuel

What this tab covers Economics and financial structure: capital versus operating cost, levelised cost of storage, and how the asset earns money.

E-fuels cost from slightly more than fossil equivalents (Indian green ammonia, about 1.2 times grey ammonia, calculated) to about 10-12 times (synthetic jet fuel); EU mandates create guaranteed demand for the most expensive of them.

Capex versus opex

Mixed

Costs are dominated by electrolysers and the electricity they use; hydrogen makes up about 70% of e-methane production cost. Synthesis loops, air separation and CO2 capture add capital. Opex is mainly power, plus stack replacement and, for carbon fuels, purchased CO2.8

Hydrogen share of e-methane cost about 70%8

Levelised cost of storage (delivered fuel cost)

Mixed

India's 2025 green ammonia auctions for 724,000 t a year cleared at a weighted average of about USD 604 per tonne, with a low of INR 51.8 per kg (about USD 591 per tonne) in August 2025, against grey ammonia at about USD 515 per tonne in March 2025. IRENA estimated e-methanol at USD 800-1,600 per tonne with biogenic CO2, or 1,200-2,400 with air-captured CO2, falling to USD 250-630 by 2050, against fossil methanol production costs of USD 100-250. EASA's reference prices for 2024 put synthetic aviation fuel at EUR 7,695 per tonne against EUR 734 for fossil jet fuel, about 10 times higher (calculated); the 2025 update, as reported, was EUR 7,520 against EUR 640, about 12 times. Japanese e-methane cost about JPY 250 per cubic metre in 2023.2347811

Indian green ammonia (2025 auctions) about USD 604/t weighted average; low of USD 591/t23 E-methanol today vs 2050 USD 800-2,400/t vs USD 250-630/t4 Synthetic vs fossil jet fuel (2024) EUR 7,695/t vs EUR 734/t7 Synthetic vs fossil jet fuel (2025, as reported) EUR 7,520/t vs EUR 640/t11

Revenue stack and market participation

Mixed

Revenue comes from selling fuel and feedstock, not from grid services. Demand is policy-led: India's fertiliser offtake auctions (with a new 1 million t a year round proposed in 2026), the EU's synthetic aviation fuel sub-mandate, Japan's city gas targets, and power-plant co-firing. Seasonal storage value is a side benefit, for example in dispatchable ammonia-fired generation.258

Proposed new Indian round 1 million t/yr renewable ammonia (2026)2

Sources

  1. India's SECI proposes 1 mil mt/year new renewable ammonia auctions S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2026
  2. SECI's latest auction yields green ammonia price of INR 51.8 per kg pv magazine India, 2025
  3. Innovation Outlook: Renewable Methanol IRENA and Methanol Institute, 2021
  4. ReFuelEU Aviation European Clean Hydrogen Observatory, 2025
  5. 2024 Aviation Fuels Reference Prices for ReFuelEU Aviation (briefing note) EASA, 2025
  6. Viewpoint: CO2 counting key to Japan's e-methane plan Argus Media, 2023
  7. EASA publishes 2025 reference prices for ReFuelEU Aviation SAF Investor (reporting EASA), 2026