Ammonia, methanol and e-fuels: What to track
Price gaps, aviation mandates and India's ammonia tenders
Price gaps, aviation mandates and India's ammonia tenders What this tab covers The attributes worth tracking regularly, with the latest value, the direction of travel and why each matters.Track delivered price against fossil equivalents, mandate compliance and the build-out of offtake contracts.
| Category | Attribute | Latest | Trend | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Techno-economic | Delivered cost trajectory (in place of LCOS) | Indian green ammonia about USD 604/t (2025); synthetic jet fuel EUR 7,520/t vs EUR 640/t fossil (EASA 2025, as reported)211 | ↗ improving | The fossil price gap decides how much subsidy or mandate each tonne needs. |
| Technical | Plant availability and electrolyser stack health | No public fleet data found1 | → stable | Stack degradation sets replacement cost and output reliability. |
| Supply chain | Critical minerals and CO2 source | Air-captured CO2 USD 300-600/t vs biogenic USD 10-50/t (IRENA)4 | → stable | Carbon fuels depend on cheap, credible CO2; electrolysers on nickel and platinum-group metals. |
| Market | Offtake and mandate demand | EU synthetic aviation fuel minimum 1.2% (2030-31 average), rising to 35% in 2050; India proposed 1 million t/yr ammonia round (Aug 2026)52 | ↗ improving | Guaranteed demand underpins project finance. |
| Market | E-fuel uptake in aviation | SAF 2.8% of EU airport fuel in 2025 (1.1 Mt), up from 0.6% in 2024 when synthetic fuels were absent612 | ↗ improving | Shows the gap to the 2030 sub-mandate. |
| Compliance | Safety and environmental compliance | Seveso III: ammonia 50/200 t, methanol 500/5,000 t thresholds10 | → stable | Large ammonia stores face major-hazard permitting and community scrutiny. |
| Impact | Lifecycle carbon and CO2 accounting | No settled international rules for crediting e-methane CO28 | ↕ volatile | Double counting risk can undermine claimed abatement. |
| Impact | Co-firing share in coal plants | 20% demonstrated in 2024; target 50% by 2035 at JERA9 | ↗ improving | Watch for lock-in of coal assets versus real emission cuts. |
Sources
- Ammonia: zero-carbon fertiliser, fuel and energy store (policy briefing) The Royal Society, 2020
- India's SECI proposes 1 mil mt/year new renewable ammonia auctions S&P Global Commodity Insights, 2026
- Innovation Outlook: Renewable Methanol IRENA and Methanol Institute, 2021
- ReFuelEU Aviation European Clean Hydrogen Observatory, 2025
- EASA publishes report on sustainable aviation fuel scale-up, progress and pressure points EASA, 2025
- Viewpoint: CO2 counting key to Japan's e-methane plan Argus Media, 2023
- JERA concludes successful co-firing trial at Hekinan Ammonia Energy Association, 2024
- Directive 2012/18/EU (Seveso III), Annex I legislation.gov.uk (EU directive text as adopted), 2012
- EASA publishes 2025 reference prices for ReFuelEU Aviation SAF Investor (reporting EASA), 2026
- EU SAF supply reaches 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, exceeds ReFuelEU target (reporting EASA) BioEnergy Times, 2026