Fuel stocks and strategic reserves: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Strategic reserves and commercial fuel stocks are bought and sold at market crude and product prices. Governments, including India's, add or release barrels in crises, while traders store more when future prices are above spot prices.
Market price World Bank crude oil, average of Brent, Dubai, WTI US$/barrel · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkFuel stocks and strategic reserves and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.99 strong correlation 12-month changes 1.00 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.99 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Fuel stocks and strategic reserves ≈ 1.05 × (Crude oil)0.98 R² 0.99 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 9.8% higher fuel stocks and strategic reserves price over the long run. Units: US$/barrel and $/bbl.Chart: Fuel stocks and strategic reserves and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Fuel stocks and strategic reserves price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Reserves hold crude, so their value is the crude price. The average crude series moves almost exactly with Brent: monthly changes correlate at 0.99 and yearly changes at 1.00, since Brent is one of its three parts.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsCommercial stocks include diesel, petrol and jet fuel from refineries. The refinery products index correlates at 0.80 for monthly moves and 0.95 for yearly moves, since product prices are crude plus a margin.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUS shale responds to prices within months, acting as a buffer alongside government reserves. The WTI proxy correlates with the average crude price at 0.97 for monthly moves and 0.99 for yearly moves.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsWhen storage on land fills during a glut, traders store oil in tankers, which lifts freight rates. The freight proxy shows little monthly link, at 0.16, and a moderate yearly one, at 0.50.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsGas is also stored in caverns and depleted fields ahead of winter, and Europe now sets storage targets. European gas correlates with crude at 0.60 for yearly moves but only 0.15 for monthly moves.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMTBE is an octane booster blended into petrol, so it sits in product stocks in Asia and elsewhere. The basic organics proxy correlates with crude at 0.24 for monthly moves and 0.57 for yearly moves.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.