Lithium iron phosphate batteries: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
LFP cell prices follow lithium carbonate, iron phosphate cathode material and graphite, plus factory scale and utilisation. China makes most of the world's supply, and overcapacity there has driven cell prices down sharply in recent years.
Proxy US PPI: storage batteries excl. lead-acid index · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for lithium iron phosphate batteries itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkLithium iron phosphate batteries and Phosphoric acid
Monthly changes 0.06 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.31 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.17 monthly changes Lead or lag +5 mo Phosphoric acid tends to lead by 5 months (r 0.12) Price function, Dec 2009 to Sep 2026 Lithium iron phosphate batteries ≈ 44.5 × (Phosphoric acid)0.32 R² 0.30 On this fit, a 10% higher phosphoric acid price goes with a 3.1% higher lithium iron phosphate batteries price over the long run. Units: index and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Lithium iron phosphate batteries and Phosphoric acid prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2009, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Lithium iron phosphate batteries price against Phosphoric acid price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2009), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Lithium carbonate is the main raw material in LFP cathodes, and the lithium price spike and crash moved global cell prices strongly. The site has no lithium series, and the US battery proxy reflects a different product mix.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.LFP cathodes need purified phosphoric acid to make iron phosphate, competing with fertiliser use. The phosphate proxy shows almost no monthly link to the battery proxy, at 0.06, and only a weak yearly one, at 0.31.
little or none co-movement month to month · 196 months Show chartsLFP and most other lithium cells use graphite anodes, natural or synthetic. The carbon and graphite products proxy shows almost no link to the battery proxy, with monthly moves at 0.03, as it mostly covers electrodes for steel furnaces.
little or none co-movement month to month · 243 months Show chartsLFP is replacing lead-acid in backup power, telecom sites and some starter batteries. The two battery indices share US factory cost trends, correlating at 0.72 for yearly moves, but only at 0.10 for monthly moves.
little or none co-movement month to month · 243 months Show chartsElectric cars and buses are the largest market for LFP cells, followed by grid storage. The vehicle proxy is a general US car price index, so the data show almost no link, with monthly moves at 0.06.
little or none co-movement month to month · 243 months Show chartsSodium-ion cells target the same cheap, safe storage and small car markets as LFP, and become attractive when lithium is dear. The site uses the same battery index for both, so no separate statistics are shown.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.