Tankers, barges and fuel trucks: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Tanker and barge rates are set by the balance of ships and cargoes, so they swing with trade volumes, route lengths, sanctions and canal disruptions. Fuel, the cost of new ships and crew are the main costs.
Proxy US PPI: deep sea freight transportation index · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for tankers, barges and fuel trucks itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkTankers, barges and fuel trucks and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.15 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.51 moderate correlation Last 5 years -0.02 monthly changes Lead or lag +3 mo Crude oil tends to lead by 3 months (r 0.26) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Tankers, barges and fuel trucks ≈ 172.4 × (Crude oil)0.12 R² 0.03 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 1.2% higher tankers, barges and fuel trucks price over the long run. Units: index and $/bbl. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Tankers, barges and fuel trucks and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Tankers, barges and fuel trucks price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Oil is both the main cargo and the source of bunker fuel. The link to crude prices is loose, with monthly moves correlating at 0.15 and yearly moves at 0.51, because freight depends on the number of ships and voyages more than on the oil price.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsShips are built mostly of steel plate, so steel prices affect newbuilding prices and the long-run supply of vessels. The freight proxy correlates with steel at 0.33 for monthly moves and 0.56 for yearly moves, as both follow global trade.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNew tankers come from shipyards whose prices follow order books, steel and labour. The shipbuilding proxy is a US series that barely tracks world freight, with monthly moves correlating at 0.07, so treat this as a weak link.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefineries supply bunker fuel and ship products such as diesel and naphtha by tanker. The refinery products index leads the freight proxy by about three months, and yearly moves correlate at 0.63.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLNG carriers are a specialised tanker fleet, and both markets respond to energy trade flows and shipping disruptions. Yearly moves correlate at 0.73 with the Japan LNG price, though monthly moves correlate only at 0.22.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMethanol and ammonia are being adopted as low-carbon ship fuels, and many methanol carriers already burn their cargo. The basic organics proxy correlates at 0.64 for yearly moves, a link driven mainly by oil-linked costs for both.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.