Tankers, barges and fuel trucks: Geopolitics and regulation

Hormuz shut, Red Sea attacks and tankers' worst modern year

2026 has been the worst year for tanker routes in modern history. The US-Israeli war with Iran, from 28 February, largely closed Hormuz; Houthi attacks still deter Red Sea traffic; Russian oil moves on a sanctioned shadow fleet. Malacca and Panama work normally.

Tailwinds

Over 102,500 ships passed in 2025 (23.2 million b/d of oil in early 2025). The littoral states ruled out tolls, and piracy fell in early 2026.¹⁷

Transits rose 4.1% to 13,951 in fiscal 2026 (to September), with a 50-foot maximum draught kept through the dry season.¹⁸

Six VLCC transits on 25 October, the most since 17 October. US Central Command says over 3,000 ships crossed with its support in six months and the main lanes are clear of mines.¹⁴

Headwinds

Flows fell from about 20 million b/d before the war to an average of 2.7 million b/d from March to May. Dated Brent hit a record USD 144 in early April and IEA members released a record 400 million barrels from stocks.¹³

The IMO recorded 29 attacks on merchant ships from 1 to 22 October, the most in any month since March, and a tanker leaving Hormuz was disabled on 23 October.¹⁴

Suez transits in September were 39% below pre-Houthi levels and Bab el-Mandeb 47% below; most tankers using Suez carried Russian crude to India.¹⁶

Of 862 shadow-fleet tankers that have carried Russian oil since 2023, 583 (68%) are sanctioned by at least one of the EU, UK, US, Canada, Australia or New Zealand.¹²

In 2024 seaborne crude volumes fell 1.5% but crude tonne-miles rose 1.6%, and product tonne-miles 6.5%, as Red Sea diversions and sanctions lengthened routes.²

Before 2026 the EIA counted 20.9 million b/d through Hormuz, 4.2 million through Bab el-Mandeb and 2.3 million through Panama. The war showed the weak point is insurance and crew safety: owners stayed away even where lanes were open.

Sources

1. Review of Maritime Transport 2025, Chapter 1 UNCTAD, 2025
2. Shadow fleet: remaining targets (June 2026) KSE Institute, 2026
3. How global oil supplies have readjusted to help fill the huge gap left by the Strait of Hormuz shock IEA, 2026
4. VLCC transits climb at Hormuz, steady at Bab al-Mandab for second day S&P Global Energy, 2026
5. Red Sea Brief, 15 October 2026 Lloyd's List Intelligence, 2026
6. As Hormuz crisis unfolds, all eyes turn toward the vital Malacca Strait (Reuters) Baird Maritime, 2026
7. Panama Canal reports growth in transits and tonnage in fiscal year 2026 AJOT, 2026