Tankers, barges and fuel trucks: Unit economics
How war turned USD 2 freight into USD 36 a barrel
What this tab covers What it costs to move a unit of energy this way: capital and operating costs, tariffs, utilisation and how it compares with the alternatives.In a normal market a VLCC earns about USD 80,000 to 100,000 a day, roughly USD 2 a barrel from the Gulf to China, or about USD 0.1 per MWh per 1,000 km. In 2026 war pushed day rates past USD 1 million.
Key costs
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| VLCC day rate, normal market | 80,000 to 100,000 USD per day4 | About USD 2 per barrel Gulf to China (analyst estimate, early 2026) |
| VLCC day rate, March 2026 | 420,000 to 440,000 USD per day4 | About USD 9 per barrel (analyst estimate) |
| VLCC record day rate, Gulf to Asia | about 1.1 million USD per day25 | September 2026, against a 20-year average of USD 29,900 (Bloomberg) |
| VLCC freight, Middle East Gulf to Asia | about 36 USD per barrel26 | Early October 2026, more than five times the pre-war cost (IEA, via Reuters) |
| Extra cost of a Hormuz round trip | about 20 million USD per VLCC5 | TotalEnergies CEO, August 2026; about USD 10 per barrel |
| Cost per MWh per 1,000 km, VLCC, normal market | about 0.1 USD/MWh per 1,000 km4 | USD 2 per barrel over about 11,000 km at 1.7 MWh per barrel (calculated) |
| New VLCC price | about 120 million USD4 | Analyst estimate, 2026 |
Where the money goes
| Item | Share or amount |
|---|---|
| Fuel | 600 to 700 barrels a day; at an assumed USD 80 per barrel about USD 50,000 a day, a large share of a normal-market rate (calculated)4 |
| Capital | a USD 120 million ship needs about USD 2 per barrel on Gulf to China voyages for a 7 to 10% return (analyst estimate)4 |
| War-risk insurance and delay | the dominant extra cost in 2026; about USD 20 million per Hormuz round trip5 |
Ships trade for two decades or more (22% of crude tankers are over 20 years old). Earnings swing wildly because ship supply is fixed in the short run while tonne-mile demand jumps whenever routes lengthen. At normal rates freight is small next to the oil's value; in 2026 it became a meaningful part of the delivered price. Rail moved US crude for USD 10 to 15 a barrel in 2012 (EIA, dated).
Sources
- Oil tankers: the economics (analyst model, updated 26 March 2026) Thunder Said Energy, 2026
- TotalEnergies profitably moving heavily discounted oil through Strait of Hormuz Pipeline and Gas Journal, 2026
- USD 1 million a day oil tankers: cost of hiring oil tankers has spiralled (Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion) ThePrint, 2026
- Record oil tanker rates put pressure on Asian refiners, IEA says (Reuters) BOE Report, 2026