Thermal coal: Criticality

Not critical, but a security blanket for China and India

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	5.2%	0.2%	11.1%	+$13.8 bn	No	Holds the largest proved reserves (249 billion t) and is a net exporter (11.1% of 2024 export value); coal output fell 12% in 2024 as gas and renewables displaced it (Energy Institute; UN Comtrade).
EU	High	0.5%	8.2%	2.1%	−$11.4 bn	No	Produced 2.9 EJ and consumed 4.7 EJ of coal in 2024; banned Russian coal imports from August 2022 and is phasing coal out of power (Energy Institute).
India	High	13.6%	18.4%	0.2%	−$31.3 bn	No	Second-largest producer and importer; coal supplied 75% of India's 2,030 TWh of electricity in 2024 and consumption (23.0 EJ) exceeded production (18.1 EJ) (Energy Institute).
China	Medium	54.1%	23.6%	1.0%	−$39.2 bn	Yes	Mines and burns over half the world's coal (4,780 Mt in 2024) and is still the largest importer at 23.6% of import value; coal supplied 58% of its power (Energy Institute; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	17.4%	0.0%	−$29.9 bn	No	No domestic output; imported 4.4 EJ in 2024, mostly from Australia, and took 17.4% of world coal import value (Energy Institute; UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	0.8%	2.9%	4.8%	+$1.30 bn	no list	Colombia is a major exporter (4.7% of 2024 export value) to Europe and Asia; the region's own coal use is small at 1.1 EJ (UN Comtrade; Energy Institute).
Middle East	Low	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	−$590.0 m	no list	Negligible coal production or use (about 0.4 EJ consumption in 2024), since gas and oil fuel its power (Energy Institute).
Australia	Low	4.1%	0.0%	44.0%	+$56.5 bn	No	Largest exporter by value (44% of 2024 coal exports including coking coal); produced 11.8 EJ but used only 1.5 EJ at home (UN Comtrade; Energy Institute).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Thermal coal is not on the US 2025 or India 2023 critical lists, and the EU lists only coking coal. Its risks concern energy security and climate. For China and India, domestic coal is a shield against imported fuel, which explains their caution about rapid phase-outs. Importers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan depend on Australia and Indonesia. For power generation, substitutes are plentiful: gas, nuclear, wind, solar and hydro. The larger long-run risk falls on producers, whose mines and power plants may be stranded as climate policy tightens.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,980 highly concentrated