DAP and MAP: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
DAP and MAP are made by reacting phosphoric acid, from phosphate rock and sulphuric acid, with ammonia. Prices follow rock, sulphur and ammonia costs, Chinese export quotas, and Indian import demand, where retail prices are capped and subsidised.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: DAP, US Gulf US$/t · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkDAP and MAP and Phosphate rock
Monthly changes 0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.36 weak correlation Last 5 years -0.05 monthly changes Lead or lag −6 mo DAP and MAP tends to lead by 6 months (r 0.36) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 DAP and MAP ≈ 58.9 × (Phosphate rock)0.42 R² 0.39 On this fit, a 10% higher phosphate rock price goes with a 4.1% higher DAP and MAP price over the long run. Units: US$/t and $/mt.Chart: DAP and MAP and Phosphate rock prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: DAP and MAP price against Phosphate rock price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Phosphate rock supplies all the phosphorus, but much is mined and processed by integrated producers or sold on long contracts. The rock price moves with DAP at only 0.05 monthly and 0.36 yearly, because rock prices reset slowly.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSulphur is burned to make the sulphuric acid that dissolves phosphate rock, so sulphur spikes raise DAP costs. The sulphuric acid proxy moves with DAP at 0.26 monthly and 0.66 yearly.
weak co-movement month to month · 225 months Show chartsAmmonia supplies the nitrogen in DAP and MAP, adding gas costs to phosphate fertiliser. The US nitrogen fertiliser proxy moves with DAP at 0.37 monthly and 0.74 yearly. Phosphate producers without their own ammonia must buy it on the open market.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPhosphoric acid is the direct intermediate, and India imports large amounts to make DAP locally. The phosphatic fertiliser index moves with DAP at 0.34 monthly and 0.88 yearly, partly because that index includes DAP itself.
weak co-movement month to month · 202 months Show chartsFarmers buy nitrogen and phosphate together, and both trade on the same tenders and freight routes. Urea moves with DAP at 0.45 monthly and 0.80 yearly. Both prices also respond to the same Indian subsidy and tender decisions.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPotash is the third main nutrient, bought by the same farmers in the same seasons. It moves with DAP at only 0.17 monthly but 0.49 over the last five years, as supply shocks hit both in 2022.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.