Pharma starting materials and intermediates: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Pharma key starting materials and intermediates are the chemical building blocks that API makers convert into drugs. Most come from Chinese chemical clusters, and prices depend on petrochemical inputs, environmental crackdowns and Indian efforts to make more locally.
Proxy US PPI: synthetic organic medicinal chemicals and botanical drugs index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for pharma starting materials and intermediates itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkPharma starting materials and intermediates and Benzene
Monthly changes 0.13 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.09 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.04 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Pharma starting materials and intermediates ≈ 228.4 × (Benzene)-0.05 R² 0.02 On this fit, a 10% higher benzene price goes with a −0.5% lower pharma starting materials and intermediates price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Pharma starting materials and intermediates and Benzene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Pharma starting materials and intermediates price against Benzene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Each API is made from one or a few starting materials, so their prices feed straight into API costs. They share the medicinal chemicals index here, so no separate pair statistics are shown for this link.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Many intermediates are aromatic compounds made from benzene, toluene or their derivatives. Against the petrochemical proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.13 and yearly moves at -0.09, as contract pricing and long chains separate the two.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMethanol serves as solvent and methylating reagent in many intermediate syntheses. Against the organic chemicals proxy, monthly moves correlate at -0.01 and yearly at 0.15, so solvent price swings are largely absorbed.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsOil sets the cost of the base aromatics and olefins that intermediates start from. Monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly at -0.11, little link because Chinese supply shocks, not oil, drive intermediate prices.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPara-aminophenol, the key intermediate for paracetamol, is a classic starting material that India imports largely from China. Swings in its price, often caused by Chinese plant closures, feed directly into paracetamol costs for Indian formulators.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Chiral and specialty building blocks are higher-value intermediates for newer drugs. They share suppliers and buyers with bulk starting materials but are made in smaller volumes at much higher prices.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.