Paints and coatings: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Paint is a mix of binders such as acrylic or alkyd resins, pigments led by titanium dioxide, solvents and additives. Prices follow these mostly oil-derived inputs with a lag, and demand tracks housing, repainting, vehicles and industry.
Price index US PPI: paints and allied products index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkPaints and coatings and Titanium dioxide
Monthly changes 0.15 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.74 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.23 monthly changes Lead or lag +2 mo Titanium dioxide tends to lead by 2 months (r 0.21) Price function, Dec 2011 to Sep 2026 Paints and coatings ≈ 1.21 × (Titanium dioxide)1.21 R² 0.79 On this fit, a 10% higher titanium dioxide price goes with a 12.2% higher paints and coatings price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period).Chart: Paints and coatings and Titanium dioxide prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2011, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Dec 2011, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Paints and coatings price against Titanium dioxide price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2011), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Titanium dioxide gives paint its whiteness and opacity and is often its single most expensive input. Against the pigment manufacturing proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.15 but yearly moves at 0.74, with the proxy leading by about 2 months.
little or none co-movement month to month · 178 months Show chartsAcrylic emulsions, the binder in most water-based wall paints, are made from acrylic acid esters. Against the organic chemicals proxy, monthly moves correlate at only 0.07 but yearly at 0.57, as paint makers revise list prices only a few times a year.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSolvents, resins and many additives come from oil, but paint prices are sticky and set by brand owners. Monthly moves correlate at -0.01 and yearly at 0.26, so oil swings show up only slowly and partially in the paint index.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsAdhesives and paints use similar resins, emulsions and solvents and are often made by the same companies. The two indexes move together moderately month to month, at 0.47, and closely over a year, at 0.90, with 0.67 over the last five years.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNew housing and buildings drive both cement and decorative paint demand. Monthly moves correlate at 0.21, and at 0.40 over the last five years, reflecting a common construction and inflation driver rather than any shared input.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefineries supply the mineral spirits, aromatic solvents and propylene behind many paint ingredients. The refinery index correlates weakly, at 0.01 for monthly moves and 0.34 for yearly moves, reflecting slow pass-through into paint prices.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.