Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE): Production
A capacity wave that will outrun demand for years
What this tab covers Who makes it and how much: world capacity and output, utilisation, the top producing countries and companies globally and in India, concentration, new capacity coming, and each region's position.| Measure | Figure | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| World capacity | about 75-80 Mt/yr of LDPE plus LLDPE within total PE capacity of about 145-150 Mt/yr (2025, indicative: output at 77% utilisation) | indicative (basis: Argus Feb 2026 operating rate; Plastics Europe output) | |
| World output | about 60 Mt in 2024 (indicative: 14% of 430.9 Mt) | Plastics Europe via Chemical Week, Oct 2025; share indicative | |
| Capacity utilisation | global PE operating rate 77% in 2025, down from the mid-80s in 2021; forecast to bottom at 74% (PE and PP) in 2027-28 | Southeast Asian PE plants ran at about 62% and are expected to stay below 70% through 2028. North American plants ran at about 87% because they export over 55% of output (Argus, Sep 2025). | Argus, Feb 2026; Argus Polyethylene Outlook, Sep 2025 |
| Concentration | top country (China) about 25%, top 3 about 50% of PE capacity (indicative); top 5 companies about 30% (indicative) | Ownership is fragmented; Dow, ExxonMobil, SABIC, LyondellBasell and Sinopec are the largest. Licensed technology is concentrated: Univation (Unipol), LyondellBasell, Dow, ExxonMobil and INEOS license most new lines. | indicative |
| New capacity | about 23 Mt of new PE capacity in a second wave in 2027-28, after 21 Mt in the past five years (Argus, Feb 2026) | China expects about 10 Mt of PE and PP in 2027-28; the Middle East about 4 Mt across the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia; the US two 1 Mt HDPE plants. Very little new LDPE is planned outside Chinese EVA-type units (Argus Sep 2025). Europe rationalised about 780 kt of PE. India's next PE units sit in HPCL's Rajasthan refinery-petrochemical complex and planned crackers at BPCL Bina (indicative). | Argus, Feb 2026; Argus Polyethylene Outlook, Sep 2025; India projects indicative |
Top producing countries
China 25% · added about 11 Mt of PE capacity in 2021-2025 (Argus) United States 19% · exports over 55% of its PE output (Argus) Saudi Arabia 8% · SABIC and affiliates, ethane-based South Korea 5% · plans to cut up to 25% of cracker capacity (Argus) India 4% · about 5-6 Mt/yr of PE capacity, all grades (indicative) UAE 3% · Borouge Ruwais complex (indicative) indicative share (basis: ethylene capacity shares); Argus Feb 2026; indicative share; Argus Sep 2025; indicative; indicative; Argus Feb 2026; indicative (basis: ethylene tile, about 9 Mt ethylene capacity)Largest producers: global
| Company | Country | Volume | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow largest PE producer and solution-LLDPE leader (indicative) | US | not published | 2025 | Dow 10-K |
| ExxonMobil metallocene LLDPE (Exceed) leader; Baytown advanced recycling above 113 kt/yr (Polimerica, Feb 2026) | US | not published | 2025 | company disclosures |
| SABIC not published here; large LLDPE exporter to India | Saudi Arabia | not published | 2025 | SABIC annual report |
| LyondellBasell LDPE and LLDPE in US and Europe; refocusing on US (S&P Global 2025) | Netherlands/US | not published | 2025 | company disclosures |
| Sinopec largest Chinese PE producer (indicative) | China | not published | 2025 | Sinopec annual report |
| Borouge (ADNOC/Borealis) Ruwais; Borstar LLDPE; large supplier to India and China (indicative) | UAE | not published | 2025 | company disclosures |
| INEOS first new European cracker in decades | UK | 1.4 Mt/yr ethylene (Project ONE, Antwerp) | 2026-2027 | ethylene tile (Argus Aug 2025) |
Largest producers: India
| Company | Country | Volume | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries largest Indian producer; publishes the domestic list price others follow | India | not published | 2025 | Reliance annual report |
| Indian Oil Corporation Panipat naphtha cracker with LLDPE/HDPE swing units (indicative) | India | not published | 2025 | IOCL |
| GAIL Pata gas-based cracker, LLDPE and HDPE (indicative) | India | not published | 2025 | GAIL |
| HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) Bathinda dual-feed cracker (indicative) | India | not published | 2025 | HMEL |
| ONGC Petro additions (OPaL) Dahej dual-feed cracker; LLDPE/HDPE swing (indicative) | India | not published | 2025 | OPaL |
India makes about 5-6 Mt/yr of PE of all grades (indicative) and imports roughly one-fifth of its PE and PP consumption (CareEdge via Indian Chemical News, Dec 2025). India's PE demand is about 6-7 Mt a year (indicative). The BIS quality-control order on PE, imposed in Jan 2024, was rescinded in Nov 2025.
Position by region
| Region | Position |
|---|---|
| US | Ethane-based and export-led: over 55% of US PE output is exported, rising to about 60% (Argus 2025). Exposed to Chinese and Southeast Asian tariffs. |
| EU | Naphtha-based, energy costs about 4x US (Argus 2025); about 780 kt of PE capacity rationalised and 6.4 Mt of ethylene under review or closed. Imports from the US and Middle East fill the gap. |
| India | Short of PE; imports about one-fifth of PE and PP needs, much of it from the Gulf through Hormuz. Domestic prices follow import parity. |
| China | Moving towards self-sufficiency after adding about 11 Mt of PE in five years; still the largest importer. Coal-to-olefin plants make some PE at high CO2. |
| Japan | Small, ageing naphtha crackers; tentative closures planned for 2027-30 (Argus 2026). |
| Middle East | Low-cost ethane-based exporter supplying close to 25% of world PE and PP exports (S&P Global 2026); the 2026 Hormuz disruption cut supply to India, China and Africa. |