Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE): Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
LDPE and LLDPE are made by polymerising ethylene, which is most of their cost, and are used mainly for film packaging. Prices are set monthly by producers and traders and swing with ethylene, oil, and Chinese and Middle East supply.
Proxy US PPI: thermoplastic resins and plastics materials index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkPolyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) and Ethylene
Monthly changes 0.71 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.89 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.85 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) ≈ 100.1 × (Ethylene)0.17 R² 0.09 On this fit, a 10% higher ethylene price goes with a 1.6% higher Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) and Ethylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE) price against Ethylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Ethylene is nearly all of the raw material cost, and most polyethylene plants sit beside crackers. The petrochemical proxy moves with the resin proxy at 0.71 monthly and 0.89 yearly, and 0.85 over the last five years.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsNaphtha-based crackers in Asia and Europe tie polyethylene costs to oil. Brent moves with the resin proxy at 0.24 monthly and 0.72 yearly, as resin margins swing with supply waves.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUS and Middle East producers crack ethane from gas, so gas prices set their cost and their export competitiveness. European gas moves with the proxy at 0.11 monthly and 0.75 yearly, a loose monthly but solid yearly tie.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLDPE, LLDPE and HDPE compete in film and some moulding uses, and swing plants can shift between grades. They share the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Polyethylene and cross-linked polyethylene insulate most power cables, so grid build-out adds demand. The wire and cable price index moves with the resin proxy at 0.27 monthly and 0.68 yearly, also driven by copper.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.