Titanium dioxide: Cycles

Inside the slump that bankrupted a Western producer

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

TiO2 is a classic capacity cycle. Demand follows paint and plastics, which follow housing and consumer spending; supply comes in lumps as Chinese plants are built or closed for environmental reasons. Prices rose in 2016-18 when China shut polluting plants and in 2021-22 with post-pandemic demand, then fell from 2023 as Chinese capacity reached 6 Mt and exports flooded markets. The floor is the cash cost of Chinese sulphate plants; the ceiling is set by customers reformulating with extenders. Duties since 2025 split the world into protected and open markets.

The spread to watch Pigment price minus feedstock and acid or chlorine cost

For sulphate plants: price - 2.5 x ilmenite - 3.75 x acid - energy (indicative). At $2,466/t landed, ilmenite at $400/t FOB Australia (2025, USGS) and acid at $200/t, raw materials alone are about $1,750/t (indicative).

Booms and busts

2021-2022
Post-pandemic paint and plastics demand and supply disruption lifted prices and producer earnings.
US unit value $2,920/t (2021) to $3,450/t (2022) (USGS)
2023-2025
Weak construction and Chinese exports caused destocking and price cuts. Tronox's Q3 2025 TiO2 prices were 5% lower and volumes 8% lower year on year; adjusted EBITDA fell 48%. Venator entered insolvency.
US unit value $3,240/t (2023), $3,170/t (2024), $3,200/t (2025) (USGS); Indian landed price about $2,466/t in the DGTR period (ChemAnalyst)
2026
Capacity exits, duties and a 160% rise in sulphur prices over 18 months lifted costs for Chinese sulphate plants; Tronox raised prices 2-4% in Q1 2026.
Tronox price increases 2-4% (Q1 2026) (MarketMinute)

What drives the cycle

Housing and consumer demand. Paints and plastics take over 80% of pigment.
Chinese capacity and exports. China holds 61% of capacity, so its plant additions and environmental closures set world prices.
Trade remedies. Duties in the EU, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India and the UK shift Chinese exports to other markets.
Feedstock and sulphur prices. Ilmenite and slag costs and, for sulphate plants, sulphuric acid set the cost floor.
Inventory cycles. Paint makers destock and restock hard, amplifying swings (Tronox 2025).

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
US TiO2 unit value and trade	Free price proxy	USGS MCS
Chinese TiO2 domestic and export prices	Marginal supplier	SunSirs; SMM; ChemAnalyst
Quarterly volumes and prices of Tronox, Chemours, Kronos	Demand and pricing signals	Company reports
Ilmenite and rutile prices	Feedstock cost	Iluka quarterly reviews; Fastmarkets