Cashew nuts: Cycles
Three harvests and one buyer's appetite drive prices
Three harvests and one buyer's appetite drive prices What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.Raw-nut prices follow the West African and Indian harvests, the East African crop later in the year, and the buying appetite of Vietnamese processors. Kernel prices track demand in the United States and Europe. Weather at flowering affects yields. Producer governments add policy shocks: Côte d'Ivoire sets a minimum farm-gate price each season, and Tanzania sells through warehouse-receipt auctions. Planting booms take years to show, since young trees need time to bear.
No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.
Super-cycles in cashew nuts
Cashew has no long-run super-cycle in the sources used, and there is no World Bank price series. Prices swing with the West African crop, Vietnamese processing demand and policy moves by producer governments, which increasingly push for local processing. The shift of processing from India to Vietnam since the 2000s, and of production from India and Brazil to Africa, is the main long-run story. India's own kernel exports have fallen as domestic demand rose to about 4.6 lakh t.
- 2000-2024
Africa's rise: Côte d'Ivoire and Tanzania became leading growers, and world RCN output grew from 1.87 Mt to 4.24 Mt (FAOSTAT).
no long price series in the sources used
- 2022-2024
Indian import prices for RCN were high in 2022 and similar in 2024, with a steep rise late in 2024 as West African supply tightened.
India average RCN import price $1,362/t (CY2022) and $1,349/t (CY2024), reaching $1,745/t in Q4 2024 (APEDA)
- 2025-2026
Vietnam paid up for raw nuts while kernel prices softened, squeezing processors; Côte d'Ivoire shipments to Vietnam fell sharply.
Vietnam RCN import price $1,523/t (Jan-Oct 2025, up 21%); Indian kernel export price $8,040/t (Mar 2025) to about $7,521/t (Mar 2026) (APEDA)
What drives the cycle
- West African crop and policy. Côte d'Ivoire and Tanzania set farmgate prices, export levies and local-processing rules that decide how many nuts reach Asia.
- Vietnamese processing demand. Vietnam processes most of the world's kernels, so its buying sets RCN prices.
- Indian domestic demand. Consumption growing 5-7% a year absorbs Indian kernels and raises import needs (APEDA).
- Consumer demand in the US and EU. The US and Germany together take 38.7% of world kernel import value (UN Comtrade 2024).
- Weather. Rain at flowering or harvest cuts yields and quality (outturn).
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly cashew dashboard (prices, trade, production) | Single source for Indian and world cashew data | APEDA Market Intelligence Cell |
| Côte d'Ivoire farmgate price and export volumes | Largest producer's policy and shipments | Conseil du Coton et de l'Anacarde |
| Vietnam RCN imports and kernel exports | Largest processor's demand | Vietnam Customs; Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) |
| India RCN imports by origin | Indian processors' raw material | DGCIS / Ministry of Commerce trade data |
| Tanzania auction prices | Price signal for East African nuts | Cashewnut Board of Tanzania |
| World nut supply and consumption | Annual global balance | INC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council) statistical yearbook |