Cocoa: Criticality

Two neighbours, one weather system, half the beans

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	6.3%	4.4%	−$465.1 m	No	No production; the US took 6.3% of world bean imports by value in 2024 and is home to Hershey, Mars and Mondelez (UN Comtrade).
EU	High	0.0%	50.4%	8.4%	−$7.78 bn	No	Largest importing and grinding region: the Netherlands took 23.7%, Germany 8.7% and France 4.2% of bean imports by value in 2024, and the deforestation regulation applies from 30 December 2026.
India	Medium	0.6%	1.0%	0.0%	−$186.8 m	No	Grows about 30,000 t, under 20% of demand, so relies on imports of beans and products; a growing chocolate market (FAOSTAT 2024; Grant Thornton Bharat).
China	Low	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	−$72.3 m	No	Not among the top six bean importers in 2024 (UN Comtrade); demand for chocolate weakened in FY2024/25 according to Barry Callebaut.
Japan	High	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	−$215.0 m	No	A chocolate consumer with no production; not among the top six bean importers by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	20.4%	1.3%	29.0%	+$4.20 bn	no list	Ecuador supplied 20.3% of world bean exports by value in 2024 and Peru 5.2%; Ecuador's output grew to about 404,000 t (UN Comtrade; FAOSTAT).
Middle East	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	no list	No production; a consumer and re-export hub for chocolate, cited by Barry Callebaut as a double-digit growth market in FY2024/25.
Australia	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	−$3.09 m	No	No meaningful bean production; an importer of chocolate and products.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Cocoa is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list. Its risk profile is still striking: two adjacent countries supply about 46% of beans, and both face the same weather, disease and political shocks. The recent price spike showed how little spare supply exists. For producer states the stakes are fiscal and social, since cocoa revenue funds governments and child-labour concerns shadow the chain. Substitutes are partial: vegetable-fat cocoa butter equivalents can replace some butter, but nothing replaces cocoa flavour.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,748 moderately concentrated