Cocoa: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Cocoa comes mainly from Ivory Coast and Ghana, where state boards set farm prices and sell crops forward. World prices on the London and New York exchanges swing with West African weather, crop disease and chocolate demand.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Cocoa $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkCocoa and Sugar
Monthly changes 0.15 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.12 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.06 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Cocoa ≈ 4.73 × (Sugar)0.50 R² 0.11 On this fit, a 10% higher sugar price goes with a 4.9% higher cocoa price over the long run. Units: $/kg and $/kg. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Cocoa and Sugar prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Cocoa price against Sugar price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Sugar and cocoa are the main ingredients of chocolate, so a confectioner buys both. But they are grown in different places, and the price link is weak: monthly moves correlate at 0.15 and yearly moves at 0.12.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMilk chocolate uses milk powder, so dairy is a cost for chocolate makers. The dairy series is a US raw milk index, and it shows no link with cocoa: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.02 and yearly moves at 0.14.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPalm oil fractions are used as cocoa butter equivalents in cheaper chocolate and coatings, so dear cocoa butter lifts their use. The data shows only a faint link: monthly moves correlate at 0.16 and yearly moves at 0.09.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBoth are tropical tree crops traded by the same funds and exposed to weather and disease. Monthly moves correlate at 0.24, and at 0.36 in the last five years, when both had supply shocks.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBlack pod disease is a major threat in West Africa and farmers depend on fungicides to protect yields. The US pesticides index shows no link with cocoa prices, with monthly moves at 0.04 and yearly moves at minus 0.13, since boards often subsidise inputs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.