Cocoa: Cycles

Inside the price spike that doubled cocoa in a year

The World Bank cocoa price was $5.92 per kg in September 2026, down from $7.03 a year earlier but more than double the $2.56 of five years ago. The ten-year range ran from $1.92 to $10.75, the high also the record since 2000. In real 2010 dollars the annual average jumped from $2.88 in 2023 to $6.37 in 2024 and $6.72 in 2025. Long tree lags drive the cycle. Geman describes prices falling from $4,500 per tonne in 1976 to $795 in the early 1990s, as farmers abandoned marginal plots.

Cocoa price

Chart: Cocoa monthly price

Chart: Cocoa annual real price

Super-cycles in cocoa

Cocoa has long boom-bust cycles set by the tree lag: high prices bring planting that bears fruit five to seven years later, then a long glut. The World Bank price rose from $0.54/kg (1971) to a $4.36/kg peak (July 1977), then slid for two decades to $0.86/kg (February 2000). A slower climb followed West African unrest, and the 2023-25 spike set an all-time high of $10.75/kg (January 2025) before halving. In real 2010 dollars the price was $2.04/kg in 2022 and $6.72/kg in 2025. Unlike metals, cocoa booms are driven by supply shocks in a few countries more than by demand.

1. 1972-1979

   A commodity-wide boom and West African crop shortfalls lifted prices. High prices then spurred planting in Côte d'Ivoire, Malaysia and Indonesia, which flooded the market in the 1980s.

   World Bank monthly average rose from $0.54/kg (Jan 1971) to $4.36/kg (Jul 1977); annual average $3.79/kg in 1977

2. 1980-2000

   New trees came into bearing, with seven straight years of surplus to 1991 (Geman). Farmers abandoned marginal plots, and Ghana lost share to Côte d'Ivoire through heavy taxation.

   monthly average fell to $0.97/kg (Dec 1989) and $0.86/kg (Feb 2000); Geman cites $4,500/t in 1976 against $795/t in the early 1990s

3. 2001-2011

   Civil conflict in Côte d'Ivoire from 2002 and its 2010-11 post-election crisis, plus rising Asian demand, lifted prices in steps.

   annual average from $0.91/kg (2000) to $3.13/kg (2010); monthly average high $3.53/kg (Jan 2010)

4. 2023-2026

   Poor West African harvests, disease and old trees produced a 492,000 t deficit in 2023/24. Prices tripled, grinders cut volumes and recipes changed. Output recovered 8.5% in 2024/25 while grindings fell 3.3%, and farmgate prices were cut in 2026.

   monthly averages: $3.17/kg (Jun 2023) to a record $10.75/kg (Jan 2025), down to $3.24/kg (Mar 2026), $5.92/kg in Sep 2026

What drives the cycle

• Tree lag. Trees take about seven years to mature, so planting decisions made in a boom add supply long after it ends (Geman).
• West African weather and disease. About 46% of beans come from two neighbouring countries, so one bad rainy season or swollen-shoot outbreak moves the world price.
• Marketing board pricing and smuggling. State farmgate prices in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana decide farmer incentives; gaps between them drive smuggling to Ghana, Liberia and Guinea (Reuters, Aug 2026).
• Demand response of grinders and brands. When beans are dear, chocolate makers shrink bars and cut cocoa content; world grindings fell 3.3% in 2024/25 (ICCO, Aug 2026).
• Regulation. The EU deforestation regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large firms, adding traceability costs and possibly a two-tier market.

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