Germanium: Cycles

How export controls drove the price past $5,000

The European price for 99.999% germanium metal averaged $1,187/kg in 2021 and $1,392 in 2023. It jumped to $1,991 in 2024 and about $4,100 in 2025, climbing from $3,150 to $5,380/kg between January and October 2025. The cause was policy. China imposed export licensing in August 2023 and banned exports to the United States in December 2024. Its reported metal exports for January to September 2025 were 7,520 kg, against 36,656 kg in the same months of 2023.

US price, Germanium metal 99.999%, Europe (Argus)

Super-cycles in germanium

Germanium is a tiny market of about 150 t a year with no exchange, so its price moves in sharp steps on supply shocks and policy rather than on a smooth economic cycle. A shortage in 2007-08, when low zinc prices cut smelter output while fibre and infrared demand grew, pushed zone-refined metal from $950/kg to $1,490/kg. Prices then held around $1,200-1,400/kg into the early 2020s. Chinese export licensing from August 2023 and a ban on exports to the US in December 2024 split the market and tripled European prices to a record above $5,000/kg in 2025.

1. 2007-2008

   Low zinc prices had cut zinc output, reducing by-product germanium, while fibre optics and infrared demand rose. The market was short.

   Zone-refined germanium rose from $950/kg at the start of 2007 to $1,240/kg at end-2007 and $1,490/kg at end-2008 (USGS Circular 1365, 2010).

2. 2021-2023

   A calm period of steady Chinese supply and modest demand growth from fibre and satellites.

   European 99.999% metal averaged $1,187/kg (2021), $1,294 (2022) and $1,392 (2023) (USGS MCS 2026, Argus).

3. 2023-2025

   China required export licences from August 2023, then banned exports to the US in December 2024. Possible state stockpiling of about 100 t was reported in 2024. Chinese metal exports for January-September fell from 36,656 kg (2023) to 7,520 kg (2025).

   Chinese spot ingot hit a record 13,250 yuan/kg ($1,826) in July 2024 (SMM via Reuters). European metal averaged $1,991/kg in 2024 and about $4,100/kg in 2025, rising from $3,150 to $5,380/kg between January and October 2025 (USGS, Argus).

What drives the cycle

• Chinese export policy. China does most of the world's refining, so licences, bans and general-licence pauses (agreed in the October 2025 US-China truce, CSIS 2026) set the price outside China.
• Zinc smelter output and recovery circuits. Most germanium comes from zinc residues; when zinc output falls or circuits are not installed, germanium supply falls with it, as in 2007.
• Fibre-optic build-out. Data-centre, 5G and undersea cable fibre is the largest use; AI-driven data-centre growth raises demand for germanium tetrachloride.
• Defence and space demand. Thermal imaging and satellite solar cells have few substitutes, so buyers pay up and governments stockpile.
• State stockpiling. China's reserve bureau and the US stockpile (5,000 kg of potential disposals in FY2025) can add or remove a large share of a 150 t market.

Metrics to track