Germanium: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Germanium is recovered from zinc refining residues and coal fly ash, mainly in China, which has restricted exports. It is used in fibre optics, infrared optics for defence, space solar cells and polymer catalysts, so supply is inflexible.
No public price Germanium has no public monthly price series: Priced in Chinese and private assessments; no free public series.What its price moves with
Germanium is recovered from residues of zinc refining, so supply depends on zinc output and on which refineries install recovery. Output therefore cannot be expanded quickly when germanium demand rises.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Some Chinese and Russian coals are rich in germanium, which is extracted from the fly ash left after burning. Coal mining and burning in those regions thus adds germanium supply outside the zinc chain.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Germanium and gallium came under the same Chinese export licensing in 2023, tightened into a US sales ban in 2024 that was suspended in November 2025. Prices outside China rose sharply for both, while Chinese domestic prices stayed lower.
No public price for gallium, so the link is explained in words only.High-efficiency multi-junction solar cells for satellites are grown on germanium wafers, so satellite constellations drive demand. Space-based solar power, if built, would multiply this use many times over and tighten supply.
No public price for space-based solar power, so the link is explained in words only.Germanium tetrachloride raises the refractive index of optical fibre cores, so fibre and data network build-out is a major use. Data centre, 5G and broadband growth keep this demand rising steadily.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Some PET resin, notably in Japan, is made with germanium dioxide catalysts instead of antimony, giving very clear bottles. This use competes with fibre optics for supply when germanium is scarce.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.