Palm oil: Criticality

How Jakarta's policy can raise India's cooking oil bill

How Jakarta's policy can raise India's cooking oil bill What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	5.6%	0.4%	−$1.72 bn	0%	No	Small importer for food and cosmetics (5.6% of world palm oil import value in 2024, UN Comtrade); no production.
EU	High	0.0%	18.1%	6.1%	−$3.61 bn	0%	No	Importer (Netherlands 4.5%, Italy 4.1% of 2024 import value) whose renewable energy rules phase out palm-based biofuel credits and whose deforestation regulation covers palm oil.
India	High	0.0%	25.2%	0.0%	−$8.52 bn	4%	No	Largest importer (25.2% of world import value in 2024), Malaysia's top market at 2.66 Mt in 2025; small domestic output from the oil palm mission.
China	High	0.1%	10.0%	0.0%	−$3.38 bn	0%	No	Second-largest importer (10.0% of 2024 import value) and buyer of 0.90 Mt from Malaysia in 2025; prices it on Dalian palm olein.
Japan	High	0.0%	1.9%	0.0%	−$652.9 m	0%	No	Small importer for food processing: 0.59 Mt from Malaysia in 2025 (MPOB) and about 0.65 Mt of total imports projected for 2026/27 (USDA PSD).
Latin America	Low	7.4%	2.8%	4.9%	+$1.06 bn	115%	no list	Colombia (2.3% of world output in 2023) and Guatemala (1.2%) are growing producers and exporters.
Middle East	High	0.0%	3.2%	0.6%	−$830.8 m	0%	no list	Net importer with no production: about 2.45 Mt of imports projected for 2026/27, 5.9% of world imports (USDA PSD); Turkey bought 0.75 Mt from Malaysia in 2025 (MPOB).
Australia	High	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	0%	No	Minor importer (about 70 kt in 2026/27, USDA PSD); no production and not among top traders in 2024 UN Comtrade data.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2023. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Palm oil is not on any critical minerals list, but it matters for food security in importing countries such as India and Pakistan. Two producers supply over 80% of the world's output, so policy in Jakarta moves global cooking oil prices. Climate risk comes from El Nino droughts. Environmental risk is large: plantation expansion has driven tropical deforestation and peat fires. Substitution with other vegetable oils is possible, but palm yields far more oil per hectare. Shifting demand to other oils would need much more land.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 4,077 highly concentrated