Phosphate rock: Criticality

No substitute exists for phosphorus in farming

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Medium	7.1%	9.9%	0.1%	−$436.5 m	Yes	Mined 20 Mt of rock in 2025, the third largest after China and Morocco, imports the rest almost entirely from Peru (16% net import reliance), and added phosphate rock to its 2025 critical minerals list (USGS 2026).
EU	High	0.4%	16.5%	4.1%	−$582.8 m	Yes	Mines only about 1 Mt in Finland, imports 82% of needs, and lists phosphate rock and phosphorus as critical (EU CRM 2023).
India	High	0.5%	40.4%	0.0%	−$1.79 bn	Yes	Mines 1.5 Mt of rock with 31 Mt of reserves, is the largest rock importer (40.4% of world import value in 2024) and imported about two-thirds of its DAP in FY2026 (USGS 2026; Comtrade; Chambal MD&A).
China	Medium	44.1%	4.6%	0.5%	−$184.5 m	Yes	Mines 110 Mt of rock (44% of world) from 3,400 Mt of reserves, about 31 years at current rates, and dominates elemental phosphorus (79% of processing) (USGS 2026; EU CRM 2023).
Japan	High	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	−$53.8 m	Yes	Has no phosphate mining (none listed by USGS 2026) and imports rock, acid and fertilisers.
Latin America	Low	4.3%	6.5%	14.1%	+$220.2 m	no list	Peru exports rock (14.0% of world export value) and Brazil mines 5 Mt but is a major importer of rock and MAP (USGS 2026; Comtrade).
Middle East	Low	11.2%	1.3%	21.3%	+$711.8 m	no list	Saudi Arabia (10 Mt) and Jordan (12 Mt) are large producers and exporters, with Ma'aden's Gulf exports exposed to the 2026 Iran conflict (USGS 2026).
Australia	Medium	0.6%	1.2%	0.7%	−$27.1 m	No	Mines about 2.5 Mt of rock (Queensland) with 800 Mt of reserves (USGS 2026).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

The EU lists phosphate rock as critical: supply risk 1.0, economic importance 6.4 and 82% import reliance. The US added it to the 2025 critical list after public comment, and India listed it in 2023. USGS states there is no substitute for phosphorus in agriculture. The risk is concentration: China dominates mining and Morocco dominates reserves. Russia is a large supplier of finished phosphates. US net import reliance was 16% in 2025. Phosphate is a main product, not a by-product.

EU 2023 Critical US 2025 list Yes India 2023 list Yes Production HHI 2,327 moderately concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Phosphate rock: supply risk 1, economic importance 6.4. EU import reliance, extraction 82% EU recycling input rate 0% US net import reliance, 2025 16% share of apparent consumption

Substitutes

No substitutes for phosphorus in agriculture