Phosphate rock: Cycles

The price that tripled and then halved in five years

Phosphate rock averaged $170/t in September 2026, up from $152.5 a year earlier and $147.5 five years earlier. The ten-year range is $70.8 to $347.5, and the post-2000 peak was $450. In 2010 dollars the price jumped from $77.7 in 2020 to $281.9 in 2023, then fell back to $131.4 in 2025. Spikes come from grain booms, energy-driven fertiliser costs and export curbs. In 1974 Morocco's state producer OCP quadrupled its price within months, and other producers followed (Radetzki & Warell, pdf p. 228). New mines take many years, so supply reacts slowly.

Phosphate rock price

Chart: Phosphate rock monthly price

Chart: Phosphate rock annual real price

US price, US average value, f.o.b. mine, marketable rock

Super-cycles in phosphate rock

Phosphate has had three great spikes in 50 years, each when cheap energy and food ended suddenly, and each followed by a long slide. Morocco's state producer tripled the rock price in 1974. The 2007-08 grain and biofuel boom took rock from a $44/t average (2006) to $450/t (October 2008 monthly average). The 2021-23 energy shock, Chinese export curbs and Russia's war lifted it again to a monthly peak of $347.5/t (September 2023), and DAP stayed high into 2026 as the Gulf conflict hit sulphur and ammonia. Between spikes real prices were flat or falling. Concentration in Morocco, China and Russia makes policy a recurring driver.

1. 1974-1977

   After OPEC's success, Morocco's OCP raised its producer price and other exporters followed. Recession, deferred farm buying and substitution broke the scheme within three years.

   OCP list price rose from $14/t to $42/t (Jan 1974) and $63/t (July 1974), then fell to $49/t (1976) and $38/t (1977) (UNCTAD via Radetzki); the World Bank annual average of monthly prices rose from $14/t (1973) to $67/t (1975).

2. 2007-2009

   Grain and biofuel demand, high sulphur and ammonia costs and Chinese export taxes drove a short, extreme spike that collapsed with the financial crisis.

   Rock rose from $44/t (2006 average) to $450/t (Oct 2008 monthly average); DAP peaked at $1,075.8/t (July 2008 monthly average) and averaged $288/t in 2009 (World Bank).

3. 2021-2023

   Gas and ammonia prices soared, China curbed phosphate fertiliser exports, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted trade. Rock prices lagged DAP and then stayed high into 2023.

   Rock rose from $70.8/t (April 2020) to $320/t (July 2022) and a peak of $347.5/t (September 2023), averaging $324/t in 2023; DAP peaked at $954/t (April 2022) (World Bank monthly averages).

4. 2024-2026

   Rock fell back but DAP stayed expensive as Chinese exports remained limited and, from February 2026, war with Iran disrupted Gulf sulphur, ammonia and fertiliser flows. The US suspended some duties on Moroccan phosphate fertiliser in June 2026.

   Rock averaged $152.5/t in both 2024 and 2025 and was $170/t in September 2026; DAP rose from $522/t (May 2024) to $800.6/t (September 2026) (World Bank monthly averages).

What drives the cycle

• Crop prices and farm affordability. Farmers can mine soil phosphorus for a season, so demand drops quickly when the DAP-to-grain price ratio worsens.
• Sulphur and ammonia costs. Each tonne of DAP needs sulphuric acid and ammonia; both depend on oil, gas and Gulf supply, as Nutrien's higher 2025 sulphur costs show.
• Chinese export policy. China mines 44% of world rock and is a major DAP exporter; export curbs since 2021 have tightened world DAP supply.
• Morocco's capacity choices. OCP holds 68% of world reserves and is the swing supplier of rock, acid and DAP.
• India's buying and subsidy. India is the largest importer of rock, acid and DAP; its tenders, contract prices and subsidy rates move the market.

Metrics to track