Potash: Criticality

Why India and the US call potash critical

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.9%	20.3%	13.9%	−$2.47 bn	Yes	Mined 500 kt K2O in 2025 but had 92% net import reliance, with 79% of 2021-24 imports from Canada, and added potash to its critical minerals list in 2025 (USGS 2026).
EU	Low	6.0%	7.7%	16.7%	+$81.0 m	No	Produces potash in Germany (3.0 Mt K2O) and Spain (0.45 Mt), does not list it as critical (supply risk 0.7), and is phasing in tariffs on Russian and Belarusian potash of up to EUR 430/t by 2028 (USGS 2026; EU CRM 2023; Mining.com).
India	High	0.0%	6.1%	0.1%	−$1.11 bn	Yes	Has no mine output and imports all its MOP (6.1% of world import value in 2024), lists potash as critical (2023) and pays a contract price set yearly with Belarus, Russia and Canada ($349/t in 2025, $383/t for June-December 2026) (Comtrade; Mining.com; Fertilizer Daily).
China	Medium	11.0%	20.6%	0.5%	−$3.73 bn	Yes	Produces 6.3 Mt K2O (third largest) but still took 20.6% of world import value in 2024, buying under an annual contract and from Laos (USGS 2026; Comtrade).
Japan	Low	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	−$141.8 m	No	Has no potash production (none listed by USGS 2026) and imports all its needs.
Latin America	High	2.4%	26.6%	1.8%	−$4.72 bn	no list	Brazil is the largest importer (23.2% of world import value in 2024) and mines only about 0.3 Mt K2O, with the Autazes project in development; Chile produces about 0.6 Mt K2O from brines (Comtrade; USGS 2026).
Middle East	Low	8.6%	0.0%	0.1%	+$4.48 m	no list	Israel (2.0 Mt) and Jordan (1.8 Mt K2O) produce potash from the Dead Sea, which holds nearly 2 billion t of KCl (USGS 2026).
Australia	High	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	−$207.5 m	No	Has no potash production (none listed by USGS 2026) and imports its MOP.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: World Mining Data, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

The EU scores potash low on supply risk (0.7) but fairly high on economic importance (6.2), with 33% import reliance, and does not list it as critical. The US added potash to its 2025 critical minerals list, and India listed it in 2023. USGS states there is no substitute for potassium as a plant nutrient; manure and glauconite are too dilute to haul far. The risk is political rather than geological: about a third of supply comes from Russia and Belarus, both under Western sanctions. None of it is a by-product of other mining.

EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list Yes India 2023 list Yes Production HHI 1,836 moderately concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Potash: supply risk 0.7, economic importance 6.2. EU import reliance, extraction 33% EU recycling input rate 0% US net import reliance, 2025 92% share of apparent consumption

Substitutes

None for potassium as a plant nutrient; manure and glauconite are low-potassium local alternatives