Potash: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Potash prices are set by a few producers in Canada, Russia and Belarus, by sanctions and export routes, and by farm demand in Brazil, China, India and the US. Annual contracts with India and China anchor world prices.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Potassium chloride $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkPotash and Phosphate rock
Monthly changes 0.25 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.60 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.24 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Potash ≈ 21.4 × (Phosphate rock)0.57 R² 0.56 On this fit, a 10% higher phosphate rock price goes with a 5.6% higher potash price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt.Chart: Potash and Phosphate rock prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Potash price against Phosphate rock price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Farmers buy potash and phosphate together to balance nitrogen, so both follow crop affordability. Their mines, producers and export politics are very different, which keeps the tie moderate: monthly changes correlate at 0.25 and yearly changes at 0.60.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsUrea, phosphate and potash are the three main nutrients, and farmers cut all three when crop prices fall relative to fertiliser. Urea is made from gas while potash is mined, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.20 and yearly moves at 0.60.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMaize is one of the heaviest users of potash, and grain prices set what growers can afford to spend on fertiliser. The effect works through planting seasons, so monthly moves hardly correlate (0.03) but yearly changes correlate at 0.44.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDAP and MAP are often blended with potash into NPK fertilisers, so dealers price them as a basket. The US Gulf DAP price correlates with potash at 0.17 monthly and 0.34 yearly, rising to 0.49 in the last five years.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsDrying and processing potash uses gas-fired heat, and gas sets the cost of rival nitrogen fertilisers and so farmers' total fertiliser bill. Monthly moves correlate at 0.17 and yearly moves at 0.66, the latter boosted by the 2022 shock that hit all fertilisers.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPotash ore is mostly mixed with common salt, which is separated and either sold or stockpiled as waste. The salt series is a US index for evaporated salt and moves on its own, with monthly changes correlating at only 0.07 with potash.
little or none co-movement month to month · 162 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.