Poultry: Criticality

Widely grown, yet one exporter dominates the trade

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	15.7%	1.3%	13.9%	+$4.40 bn	115%	No	Largest producer (15.7% of world output in 2024, FAOSTAT) and third-largest exporter by value (13.9%, UN Comtrade), exporting about 14% of broiler output in 2025 (WASDE).
EU	Low	9.0%	38.5%	42.5%	+$3.92 bn	108%	No	Produces about 12.7 Mt (2026, USDA PSD); Poland (14.1%) and the Netherlands (9.1%) are big exporters while Germany (8.1%) and France (7.4%) are big importers by value (UN Comtrade 2024).
India	Low	3.9%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	–	No	Fifth-largest producer with 3.9% of world output (5.0 Mt in 2024, FAOSTAT), almost entirely for the home market.
China	Low	12.0%	10.7%	3.0%	−$1.93 bn	107%	No	Second-largest producer (12.0%) and the largest importer by value (10.7% in 2024), while its exports are forecast to rise to 1.54 Mt in 2026 (FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade; USDA PSD).
Japan	High	1.9%	5.4%	0.0%	−$1.49 bn	61%	No	Largest importer by volume, 1.18 Mt forecast for 2026 (USDA PSD).
Latin America	Low	21.9%	8.7%	28.1%	+$7.20 bn	115%	no list	Brazil is the largest exporter (26.5% of world export value in 2024) and Mexico a major importer (6.9%) (UN Comtrade).
Middle East	High	3.7%	10.8%	1.0%	−$2.62 bn	55%	no list	Net importer: Saudi Arabia took 5.7% of world import value in 2024 and Iraq about 0.49 Mt in 2025 (UN Comtrade; USDA PSD).
Australia	Low	1.2%	0.0%	0.2%	+$71.8 m	104%	No	Not among the top six exporters or importers of chicken in 2024 (UN Comtrade).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Chicken is not on any critical raw materials list. Its strategic weight is as the cheapest animal protein for fast-growing cities. Supply is widely spread (HHI 610), but Brazil alone supplies over a quarter of exports by value. The main vulnerabilities are dependence on corn and soybean feed, a narrow genetic base in commercial breeds, and avian influenza. Morgan's account of Philippine and Korean producers relying on foreign breeding stock shows how genetics can become a dependency (pdf pp. 250-251).

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 610 unconcentrated