Poultry: Cycles

Why chicken prices stay calmer than beef or pork

The World Bank chicken price was $1.81/kg in September 2026, against $1.74 a year earlier and $1.83 five years ago. Its ten-year range is $1.27 to $2.72, that peak being the highest since 2000. Chicken prices are steadier than beef or pork because the short production cycle lets supply track demand within months. Shocks come from feed costs, avian influenza culls and sudden trade bans. Tilton and Guzmán note that farm price swings come mainly from supply shocks, since food demand barely follows the business cycle (pdf p. 114).

Chicken price

Chart: Chicken monthly price

Super-cycles in poultry

Chicken has no super-cycle. The World Bank chicken price rose slowly from $0.30/kg in 1960 to $1.81/kg in September 2026, a far gentler path than grains or metals. Price swings follow feed costs, disease and trade bans. The highest monthly price on record was $2.72/kg in June 2018 and the lowest of the last decade $1.27/kg in April 2020, when lockdowns closed restaurants. Note that the series switched from US to Brazilian wholesale prices in September 2021.

1. 2006-2008

   Biofuel demand and the food price spike doubled maize costs, which integrators passed on.

   World Bank maize averaged $122/t in 2006 and $223/t in 2008; chicken rose from $1.53/kg (2006 average) to $1.95/kg (Jul 2008)

2. 2011-2014

   The 2012 US drought pushed maize to $298/t (2012 average) and producers cut flocks, lifting chicken prices.

   chicken rose to $2.56/kg in May 2014 (World Bank)

3. 2018-2020

   A US price peak was followed by the pandemic shock, when food-service demand collapsed.

   from a record $2.72/kg (Jun 2018) to $1.27/kg (Apr 2020) (World Bank)

4. 2022-2026

   Avian influenza and high feed costs in 2022 gave way to cheap Brazilian supply; Brazil's exports reached a forecast 5.45 Mt in 2026 (USDA PSD).

   $1.90/kg (May 2022) to $1.33/kg (Jul 2024), then $1.81/kg (Sep 2026) (World Bank, Brazil series)

What drives the cycle

• Feed costs. Maize and soybean meal make up most of the cost of a broiler, so grain price spikes feed through within months (Morgan).
• Avian influenza. Outbreaks cull flocks and trigger import bans on whole countries or regions, diverting exports.
• Income growth in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Chicken is the first meat households add as incomes rise, because it is cheap and culturally accepted.
• Trade access. Brazil supplies 26.5% of world export value, so bans or tariffs from China, Saudi Arabia or the EU move prices (UN Comtrade 2024).

Metrics to track