Rapeseed: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Rapeseed, or canola, is crushed for oil and meal. The oil price is set by harvests in Canada, Europe and Australia, European biodiesel demand, and the prices of rival vegetable oils and diesel.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Rapeseed oil $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkRapeseed and Biodiesel (FAME)
Monthly changes 0.73 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.93 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.66 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Rapeseed ≈ 2.78 × (Biodiesel (FAME))0.86 R² 0.90 On this fit, a 10% higher Biodiesel (FAME) price goes with a 8.5% higher rapeseed price over the long run. Units: $/mt and US$/t.Chart: Rapeseed and Biodiesel (FAME) prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Rapeseed price against Biodiesel (FAME) price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Rapeseed oil is the main biodiesel feedstock in Europe, so fuel blending rules drive much of its demand. The biodiesel proxy is the soybean oil price, so this also shows oil substitution: monthly moves correlate at 0.73 and yearly moves at 0.93.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSunflower oil and rapeseed oil compete in European kitchens and food factories, and both come largely from the Black Sea and Europe. They move nearly together: monthly moves correlate at 0.69, yearly moves at 0.91 and the last five years at 0.76.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPalm oil is the cheapest alternative for food and fuel, so a wide price gap shifts buyers between them, and palm-based biodiesel competes with rapeseed biodiesel in Europe. Monthly moves correlate at 0.58 and yearly moves at 0.86.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSoybeans compete with rapeseed as a source of both oil and protein meal. Because the soybean series also reflects meal values, the link is softer: monthly moves correlate at 0.45 and yearly moves at 0.71.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsExpensive crude oil makes rapeseed biodiesel cheaper relative to fossil diesel and raises farm costs. Crude and rapeseed oil correlate at 0.45 for monthly moves and 0.67 for yearly moves, a shared energy driver rather than an input.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRenewable diesel and aviation fuel plants also take vegetable oils, competing with biodiesel for supply. The proxy here is the diesel price index, so the link mostly shows the fossil fuel the biofuels replace: monthly moves correlate at 0.36 and yearly moves at 0.69.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.