Rapeseed: Criticality

Why Canadian weather matters for Indian and Chinese kitchens

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	2.5%	1.6%	1.5%	+$6.53 m	107%	No	Small producer and large importer of canola oil (3.0 Mt in 2025/26, USDA) and meal (4.5 Mt), largely from Canada, for food and renewable diesel.
EU	Medium	18.9%	51.7%	25.4%	−$3.14 bn	75%	No	Second-largest producer (20.7 Mt in 2025/26) and the largest seed importer (7.0 Mt, USDA); Germany took 22.5% of world seed import value in 2024.
India	Low	15.1%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	100%	No	Fourth-largest producer (13.77 Mt in 2025-26), self-sufficient in seed and an exporter of meal (1.5 Mt), but a large importer of other edible oils.
China	Medium	19.2%	27.5%	0.0%	−$3.44 bn	78%	No	Third-largest producer (16.0 Mt) and top importer of seed by value (27.5% in 2024) plus 2.0 Mt of oil (2025/26, USDA).
Japan	High	0.0%	9.0%	0.0%	−$1.13 bn	0%	No	Imports nearly all its needs: 2.1 Mt of seed in 2025/26 (USDA), 9.0% of world import value in 2024.
Latin America	High	0.9%	1.0%	1.0%	+$595k	49%	no list	Minor producer; Mexico imported 1.35 Mt of seed in 2025/26 (USDA), mainly from Canada.
Middle East	High	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	21%	no list	The UAE imported 1.2 Mt of seed in 2025/26 (USDA) for crushing and re-export.
Australia	Low	7.3%	0.1%	23.2%	+$3.03 bn	433%	No	Second-largest seed exporter: 5.55 Mt in 2025/26 (USDA) and 23.2% of world export value in 2024.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Rapeseed is not on any critical minerals list. It matters for edible oil supply in China and India, which both grow and import it, and for EU biodiesel. Canadian drought, as in 2021, can tighten supply sharply. Concentrated exports from Canada and Australia, combined with political disputes, are the main trade risk. Rapeseed oil competes with palm, soybean and sunflower oil (Geman, pdf p. 160), and the meal with soybean meal, so the oil and protein system as a whole is resilient.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,239 unconcentrated