Rice: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
This series is Thai 5% broken white rice. Most rice is eaten where it is grown, so world trade is thin and policy-driven. India, the leading exporter, Thailand and Vietnam set prices through export rules, monsoon harvests and stock releases.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Rice, Thai 5% $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkRice and Wheat
Monthly changes 0.00 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.20 weak correlation Last 5 years -0.02 monthly changes Lead or lag +2 mo Wheat tends to lead by 2 months (r 0.23) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Rice ≈ 77.1 × (Wheat)0.32 R² 0.18 On this fit, a 10% higher wheat price goes with a 3.1% higher rice price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Rice and Wheat prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Rice price against Wheat price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Rice and wheat are the main food grains and can partly replace each other in diets and government food schemes. Yet monthly moves show almost no link and yearly moves only 0.20, because Asian export policies, not world grain markets, drive the rice price.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPaddy farmers use much urea, which India supplies at controlled subsidised prices. The link with world urea is slight, monthly moves at 0.12 and yearly moves at 0.13, turning negative at -0.26 in the last five years, as subsidies shield farmers from fertiliser swings.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPhosphate fertilisers such as DAP are another key paddy input and are also subsidised in India. The link is modest, monthly moves at 0.19 and yearly moves at 0.27, stronger than with urea but still weak.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRice needs far more irrigation water than most crops, and California rice growers buy water in the market this index tracks. There is no useful link, monthly moves at -0.11, because the Thai export price is set by Asian supply.
little or none co-movement month to month · 96 months Show chartsDiesel pumps irrigate much of South and Southeast Asia's rice, and fuel moves harvests to ports. The diesel proxy shows no monthly link and yearly moves at only 0.17, since cheap electricity for pumps in India and export rules dampen fuel effects.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.