Rice: Cycles

Lessons from the 2007-08 scramble for rice

Thai 5% broken rice was $482/t in September 2026, up 29% on a year earlier ($374) and 21% above five years ago ($400). The ten-year range is $356 to $660; the post-2000 high of $907 came earlier. Rice's sharpest modern spike was the 2007-08 food crisis, when Asian governments scrambled for supplies (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 232). In real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $511.2 in 2024 to $351.3 in 2025, the lowest since at least 2010. Monsoon strength, El Niño, and export policy in India, Thailand and Vietnam drive the swings.

Rice, Thai 5% price

Chart: Rice, Thai 5% monthly price

Chart: Rice, Thai 5% annual real price

Super-cycles in rice

Rice prices are set in a thin world market: only about 11% of output is traded, so a policy change in one big exporter can double the price. Long-run real prices have fallen since the Green Revolution, but rice spikes harder than wheat or maize because governments hoard. The World Bank Thai 5% monthly average hit $604/t in 1974 and an all-time high of $907/t in April 2008, both driven by export bans and panic buying. In 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $511 in 2024 to $351 in 2025, the lowest since 2007, after India lifted its curbs.

1. 1972-1974

   Poor Asian harvests, the oil shock and export restrictions during the world food crisis.

   World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) rose from $96/t (Apr 1971) to $604/t (Apr 1974)

2. 2007-2008

   India, Vietnam and other exporters restricted sales while the Philippines bought heavily. World stocks were not short, but the traded market froze.

   World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) jumped from $313/t (Jan 2007) to $907/t (Apr 2008), then fell to $532/t by Dec 2008

3. 2022-2024

   India banned broken rice exports and taxed white rice (Sep 2022), banned non-basmati white rice (Jul 2023) and taxed parboiled rice (Aug 2023). El Niño added to fears.

   World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) rose from $439/t (Sep 2022) to $660/t (Jan 2024)

4. 2024-2026

   India lifted most curbs in September-October 2024 and allowed broken rice exports in March 2025 as stocks swelled. USDA forecasts India's 2026/27 crop at 147 Mt, down from 154 Mt.

   World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) fell to $356/t (Oct 2025), then recovered to $482/t (Sep 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Indian export policy. India supplies about a third of world exports; its bans, duties and minimum export prices moved world prices more than weather in 2022-25.
• Monsoon and El Niño. A weak monsoon cuts India's and Southeast Asia's kharif crop and raises political pressure to restrict exports.
• Importer stockpiling. Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia buy heavily when prices rise, adding to spikes.
• Public stock levels in India and China. Huge state stocks let governments sell into the market or keep it closed.
• Fertiliser and energy costs. Urea and diesel for pumps are major costs; India's subsidies insulate farmers, others pass costs into prices.

Metrics to track