Natural rubber: Cycles

At a ten-year high, yet far below its peak

The World Bank TSR20 price was $2.41 per kg in September 2026, the top of its ten-year range and up from $1.74 a year earlier and $1.63 five years ago. The ten-year low was $1.08. Even so, the peak since 2000, $5.58, was more than double today's level. In real 2010 dollars prices fell from $4.07 in 2011 to $1.21 in 2023. Blas & Farchy note China's boom made it the largest rubber consumer. Long tree lags slow supply, and oil prices matter because synthetic rubber is made from petrochemicals.

Rubber, TSR20 price

Chart: Rubber, TSR20 monthly price

Chart: Rubber, TSR20 annual real price

Super-cycles in natural rubber

Rubber has had clear super-cycles, tied to oil, which sets the cost of synthetic rubber, and to China's growth. The World Bank RSS3 price rose from $0.33/kg in 1972 to $1.42/kg in 1980, slumped through the 1980s and 1990s to $0.63/kg in 1999, then soared to $4.82/kg in 2011 on Chinese demand. The long tree lag then worked in reverse: trees planted at the peak came into tapping just as demand slowed, and prices fell to $1.33/kg (TSR20) in 2020. In real 2010 dollars TSR20 fell from $4.07/kg in 2011 to $1.21/kg in 2023. Prices have firmed since, to $2.41/kg in Sep 2026.

1. 1972-1980

   Two oil shocks raised the cost of petroleum-based synthetic rubber, shifting demand to natural rubber while car ownership rose.

   RSS3 annual average from $0.33/kg (1972) to $1.42/kg (1980), monthly peak $1.66/kg (Feb 1980) (World Bank)

2. 1995-1999

   A short boom in 1995 was followed by the Asian financial crisis, which hit demand and producer currencies. The International Natural Rubber Agreement, which used a buffer stock, broke down as its price range could not be revised.

   RSS3 from a $1.84/kg monthly peak (Apr 1995) to an annual average of $0.63/kg (1999) (World Bank)

3. 2002-2011

   China's car and truck boom made it the largest consumer, while high oil prices raised synthetic costs. Stocks were thin because new trees take years to mature.

   RSS3 annual average from $0.76/kg (2002) to $4.82/kg (2011); monthly peaks of $6.26/kg RSS3 and $5.58/kg TSR20 in Feb 2011 (World Bank)

4. 2012-2020

   Trees planted in the boom, especially in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, came into tapping as Chinese growth slowed; Thai output rose from 3.05 Mt (2010) to 4.86 Mt (2020) (FAOSTAT).

   TSR20 annual average from $3.16/kg (2012) to $1.33/kg (2020), monthly low $1.11/kg (Apr 2020) (World Bank)

5. 2024-2026

   Ageing trees, leaf disease, bad weather and EU deforestation rules tightened supply, with world output of 14.95 Mt in 2025 short of 15.30 Mt of use (ANRPC).

   TSR20 $2.41/kg in Sep 2026, the top of its ten-year range; RSS3 monthly high $2.86/kg (Jun 2026) (World Bank)

What drives the cycle

• China's vehicle fleet and tyre output. China takes a quarter of world rubber imports by value; its truck and car production sets the pace of demand.
• Oil price. Synthetic rubber is made from butadiene and styrene, petrochemicals. Dear oil raises synthetic costs and pulls demand towards natural rubber.
• Tree age and planting cycles. Trees are tapped for decades after a long immature phase, so a planting boom creates a supply wave years later.
• Weather, leaf disease and tapping incentives. Heavy rain stops tapping; leaf fall diseases cut yields; low prices make smallholders stop tapping or switch to oil palm or durian.
• Regulation: EU deforestation rules. The EU regulation covers rubber, requiring proof that rubber was not grown on land deforested after 2020, which splits the market into compliant and non-compliant supply.
• Producer-country policy. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have used export curbs to support prices, and India uses import duties.

Metrics to track