Natural rubber: Criticality

The wartime cut-off that forced a synthetic crash programme

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	11.6%	0.6%	−$1.73 bn	No	No production and the second-largest importer (11.6% of world value in 2024); natural rubber was its largest single import before 1941 (UN Comtrade; Yergin).
EU	High	0.0%	18.0%	5.2%	−$2.10 bn	No	100% import reliant; natural rubber dropped off the EU critical list in 2023 when its supply risk fell to 0.9, and its deforestation regulation now covers rubber (EU CRM 2023).
India	Medium	5.9%	6.7%	0.1%	−$1.04 bn	No	Sixth-largest producer and second-largest consumer, short by about 5 lakh t a year and importing 6.7% of world value in 2024 (Rubber Board; UN Comtrade).
China	High	5.9%	25.2%	0.2%	−$3.92 bn	No	Largest importer (25.2% of value, 2024) and sixth-largest grower (5.9% of output), with state reserves and plantations in Hainan and Yunnan (UN Comtrade; FAOSTAT).
Japan	High	0.0%	8.0%	0.0%	−$1.26 bn	No	No production; imports 8.0% of world value (2024) for Bridgestone, Sumitomo and Yokohama tyre plants (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Medium	3.3%	4.3%	1.7%	−$433.4 m	no list	The tree's home, but South American leaf blight keeps Brazil a net importer (1.9% of world import value, 2024); Guatemala supplies 2.7% of world output (UN Comtrade; EU CRM 2023).
Middle East	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	no list	No production; Turkey's tyre industry imports 3.1% of world value (2024) (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	+$0	No	No production and only small imports; not among the top importers (UN Comtrade 2024).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

The EU scores natural rubber with high economic importance (6.0) but a supply risk of only 0.9, below its threshold, so it is not listed as critical despite 100% import reliance and 2% recycling. The US 2025 and India 2023 lists exclude it. History argues for caution: Yergin shows Japan's capture of Southeast Asia cut off 90% of natural rubber exported to the United States, forcing a crash synthetic programme. Synthetic rubbers substitute widely, but not fully in demanding uses such as heavy-truck and aircraft tyres.

EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,597 moderately concentrated

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Natural rubber: supply risk 0.9, economic importance 6. EU import reliance, extraction 100% EU recycling input rate 2%