Yttrium: Cycles
A small, policy-driven price that jumped 42% in 2025
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The Argus FOB China price of 99.999% oxide was $6/kg in 2021 and peaked at $12 in 2022. It reached $9 in 2025, up 42% in a year. Yttrium metal rose 22% to $40/kg. Prices are low per kilogram because yttrium is relatively plentiful in heavy rare-earth ores. Price moves follow Chinese quota and export policy more than demand. The 2025 rise coincided with China's April export controls.
US price, Yttrium oxide, 99.999%, FOB China (Argus)
2021 6.00 2022 12.0 2023 8.00 2024 6.00 2025 9.00 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in yttrium
Yttrium shares the rare-earth cycle but its own price has mostly been low, $6-12/kg for oxide in China in 2021-2025, because China produces a surplus. Its big moves come from Chinese policy. China's April 2025 export controls created a two-tier market: prices in China stayed under $10/kg while European prices rose about 45-fold within the year and around 140-fold by May 2026. That is a policy shock, not a demand-led super-cycle, but it shows how a cheap by-product can become a choke point when one country controls separation.
- 2010-2011
China cut rare-earth export quotas and prices of all rare earths spiked, then collapsed by 2013. A yttrium-specific price series for this period is not available in the sources used.
not available in the sources used for yttrium
- 2021-2025
Steady Chinese supply kept oxide cheap, with a short rise in 2022 alongside the wider rare-earth rally. US imports swung between 323 t and 818 t a year.
Y2O3 (99.999%, FOB China) averaged $6/kg (2021), $12/kg (2022), $8/kg (2023), $6/kg (2024) and $9/kg (2025); metal $33-41/kg (Argus via USGS MCS 2026)
- April 2025 - May 2026
China added yttrium to export controls. Shipments to the US stopped and to others fell about 30%. Coating, turbine and chip-tool users outside China faced shortages, and prices split between China and the rest of the world.
Europe CIF oxide rose from about $6/kg (January 2025) to $220-320/kg (November 2025) and nearly $1,100/kg by May 2026, while China stayed near $7/kg (Argus via Reuters and Modern Mining; Oregon Group, June 2026)
What drives the cycle
- Chinese export controls and licences. China does nearly all separation, so licensing decides availability and price outside China.
- Aerospace and gas-turbine build rates. Thermal-barrier coatings and superalloys need yttria with no good substitute.
- Semiconductor equipment demand. Yttrium oxide coatings protect etch chambers; one industry source rated the 2025 shortage severity 9 out of 10 (Reuters, Nov 2025).
- Burma clay supply. A major feed for Chinese heavy rare-earth separation; conflict and border closures cut supply.
- New Western separation capacity. Plants in the US, Malaysia and South Africa could ease the two-tier market from 2026-2028.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Yttrium oxide 99.999% FOB China and CIF Europe | The spread shows how tight supply is outside China | Argus Rare Earths; Asian Metal; summarised yearly by USGS |
| China yttrium exports by destination | Direct read on licensing | China General Administration of Customs |
| MIIT rare-earth mining and separation quotas | Sets Chinese supply | China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (when published) |
| China imports of rare-earth concentrate from Burma | Feed for heavy rare earths | China customs; Trade Data Monitor |
| Jet-engine and gas-turbine deliveries | Demand for yttria coatings | Airbus, Boeing, GE Aerospace and Siemens Energy reports |