Coking coal: Fluctuation in time
Flat for a decade, now facing scrap and hydrogen steel
What this tab covers How availability changes over seconds, days, seasons, years and longer, how predictable it is, and what that means for the plants that use it.Output has been flat for a decade. Over the coming decades its availability will depend on steel demand and on how fast scrap-based and hydrogen-based steelmaking spread.
Variation by time scale
| Time scale | What happens | How large |
|---|---|---|
| Geological | Most bituminous coals date from the Carboniferous coal age.8 | about 290 to 360 million years ago |
| Decade | Production has stayed close to one billion tonnes a year.4 | about 1 Gt per year, 2015 to 2024 |
| Year to year (trade) | Trade swings with Chinese and Indian steel demand and tariffs.5 | 369 Mt in 2024 to a projected 345 Mt in 2025 (minus 7%) |
| Year to year (exporters) | Mine and rail disruptions and markets move national exports by large percentages.4 | Canadian exports 21 Mt (2009), 35 Mt (2013 and 2019), 29 Mt (2024) |
| Structural shift | Electric arc furnaces using scrap need almost no coal (16 kg per tonne).7 | EAF share of world steel 28.6% (2023) to 29.1% (2024) |
How predictable it is
Fairly predictable in the short term because blast furnaces run continuously and buy on contract. Over decades it depends on steel technology choices that are still uncertain.
A blast furnace runs day and night for years between relinings, so coking coal demand has no daily or seasonal cycle of its own. Supply shocks come from mine accidents, floods, rail problems and trade policy. China's tariff on US metallurgical coal, for example, peaked at 140% in 2025 before being cut to 25%, and IEEFA reports that Australian exports have declined for five years.
The long-term question is substitution. Each tonne of steel made from scrap in an electric arc furnace avoids most of the 800 kg of coal that the blast-furnace route needs. In the US almost 70% of steel is already made this way.
Sources
- Coal facts Natural Resources Canada, 2025
- Coal Mid-Year Update 2025: Trade IEA, 2025
- The share of EAF in global steel production in 2024 increased to 29.1% (citing worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2025) GMK Center, 2025
- Coal formation Energy Education, University of Calgary, 2023