Hydrogen and hydrogen carriers: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Hydrogen is costly to move because it is light and bulky, so most is made where it is used. Long-distance options include compressed or liquid hydrogen, pipelines and carriers such as ammonia, methanol and organic liquids.
Proxy US PPI: argon and hydrogen index · monthly, Jun 2009 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for hydrogen and hydrogen carriers itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkHydrogen and hydrogen carriers and Natural gas
Monthly changes 0.05 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.00 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.07 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jun 2009 to Sep 2026 Hydrogen and hydrogen carriers ≈ 102.2 × (Natural gas)-0.02 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a −0.2% lower hydrogen and hydrogen carriers price over the long run. Units: index and $/mmbtu. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Hydrogen and hydrogen carriers and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2009, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jun 2009, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Hydrogen and hydrogen carriers price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2009), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.This tile shares the US argon and hydrogen price index with the hydrogen tile, so no separate statistics are shown. The index mostly reflects merchant hydrogen sold by gas companies to refineries and factories, not long-distance transport.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Most hydrogen is made from natural gas by steam reforming, so gas sets its production cost. The index shows no link to the European gas price, with monthly moves at 0.05, because merchant hydrogen is sold on long contracts with fixed fees.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsAmmonia carries hydrogen more densely than compressed gas and already has ships and terminals, though cracking it back to hydrogen costs energy. The fertiliser proxy shows no relation to the hydrogen index, with monthly moves correlating at -0.07.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsSome projects bond hydrogen to toluene to form methylcyclohexane, a liquid that ships like oil, and release it at the destination. The petrochemicals proxy shows at most a weak, negative link to the hydrogen index, with monthly moves at -0.20, as the markets are separate.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsConverting natural gas pipelines to hydrogen could be cheaper than building new ones, though steel embrittlement and compressor changes must be handled. The delivered gas proxy shows little link, with monthly moves correlating at 0.12.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsElectrolysers can make hydrogen beside the user from local renewable power, which avoids transport altogether. Cheaper electrolysers therefore reduce the need for long-distance hydrogen trade, competing directly with carrier and pipeline routes.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.