Hydrogen and hydrogen carriers: Geopolitics and regulation
Big plans, few commitments and a shortened US subsidy
What this tab covers Political and regulatory forces that help (tailwinds) or hinder (headwinds) this way of moving energy, dated.Infrastructure is advancing in Europe and China, but most announced pipelines, storage and trade projects remain uncommitted and US subsidies have been cut short.
Tailwinds
German core network approved October 2024Regulator approved a 9,040 km, EUR 18.9 billion network to be complete by 20329
EU hydrogen and decarbonised gas package 2024 to 2026Directive (EU) 2024/1788 and Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 entered into force on 4 August 2024, with transposition due by 5 August 2026. They require unbundled hydrogen network operators and regulated third-party access (negotiated access allowed until end 2032), cap hydrogen blends at interconnection points at 2% by volume, and created ENNOH, the EU body of hydrogen network operators, which began work at end 20252223
China starts world's longest hydrogen pipeline November 2025Over 1,000 km trunk line, USD 1.9 billion, broke ground in Zhangjiakou10
First cross-provincial pipeline approved in China July 2025About 400 km from Inner Mongolia to Sinopec's Yanshan plant near Beijing14
Committed pipeline length rising 2026Operating and committed length up 70% in a year1
Headwinds
Most plans not committed 2026Only about 9% of over 40,000 km announced is operating or committed; under 8% of potential 2030 trade (about 1 Mt per year) is committed1
Cross-border link delayed and conditional 2024 to 2026Denmark to Germany pipeline pushed from 2028 to end 2031 (October 2024); a capacity sale opened in January 2026 for a start at end 2030, but the project proceeds only if at least 500 MWh per hour is booked for 2031 to 20401524
US production credit shortened July 202545V (up to USD 3.185 per kg) now needs construction to begin before 2028 instead of 2033, under the 2025 reconciliation law16
Middle East conflict 2026Disrupting supplies of hydrogen derivatives such as fertilisers, raising security-of-supply concerns17
Hydrogen networks face a chicken-and-egg problem: no one builds a pipe without buyers, and buyers will not commit without supply. Germany answers this with an approved national plan and staged build, the EU with common access and unbundling rules, and China with state-led trunk lines.
Safety rules are strict because hydrogen is flammable over a wide range and ammonia is toxic, which lengthens permitting. Trade will also depend on certification of low-emissions origin.
Sources
- Global Hydrogen Review 2026: Trade and infrastructure IEA, 2026
- Bundesnetzagentur approves hydrogen core network Bundesnetzagentur, 2024
- World's longest: construction begins on USD 1.9bn, 1,000km-plus hydrogen pipeline network in northern China Hydrogen Insight, 2025
- Sinopec granted approval for China's first cross-provincial green hydrogen pipeline Hydrogen Insight, 2025
- Danish-German hydrogen pipeline delayed three years Clean Energy Wire, 2024
- The Section 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Credit (IF12602) Congressional Research Service, 2026
- Global Hydrogen Review 2026 (overview) IEA, 2026
- Decarbonising gas markets: EU H2 Regulation and H2 Directive enter into force Linklaters, 2024
- Hydrogen and decarbonised gas market package (EU policy tracker, updated August 2026) Clean Hydrogen Partnership, European Hydrogen Observatory, 2026
- Denmark opens capacity sales for first national hydrogen backbone pipeline Pipeline and Gas Journal, 2026