Firewood and charcoal supply: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Firewood and charcoal remain the main cooking fuels for many households in South Asia and Africa. Prices are local, set by distance to forests, labour, transport and the price and availability of LPG or kerosene.
No public price Firewood and charcoal supply has no public monthly price series: Sold informally in local markets; no consistent public price.What its price moves with
Firewood and charcoal come from the same woody biomass that feeds pellet and power plants. Local wood prices depend on forest access and rules on cutting, which differ widely between regions and push up prices near cities.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Timber and fuelwood compete for the same trees, though fuelwood often comes from branches, offcuts and scrub. When timber prices rise, more wood goes to sawmills and less low-grade wood reaches fuel markets.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.LPG is the main modern substitute for firewood in Indian kitchens, and subsidy schemes have spread connections to many poor households. When LPG refills become dearer, many families switch back to free or cheap wood.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Activated carbon is made by charring and activating wood, coconut shell or coal, a process related to charcoal making. It is a higher value product, so some char producers sell to activated carbon plants instead of fuel markets.
No public price for activated carbon, so the link is explained in words only.Brazil and some other countries still use charcoal to make pig iron for steel. Demand from those blast furnaces raises charcoal prices locally and ties plantation forestry to the steel cycle.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Improved cookstoves burn wood and charcoal more efficiently, cutting fuel needs and harmful indoor smoke. Their spread lowers firewood demand per household, easing pressure on local wood supplies and prices.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.How to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.