Firewood and charcoal supply: Geopolitics and regulation

Weak rules, logging bans and a trade that slips underground

Charcoal is mostly governed by local forest rules, which are weakly enforced and widely evaded, while bans can push the trade underground.

Tailwinds

Tanzania charges TZS 16,500 per 75 kg bag, with 5% for tree planting⁶

New estimates show far more wood fuel and charcoal than official statistics, helping planning¹

Kenyan study recommends easing cutting bans and licensing charcoal with conditions⁵

Headwinds

Only 17 to 57% of Tanzanian producers complied with rules; informal payments to village leaders reported⁶

Tanzania was estimated to lose about USD 100 million a year, with about USD 500 million of a USD 650 million sector unregulated; FAO puts revenue forgone across Africa at USD 1.5 to 3.9 billion a year²⁴

Kenya's 2018 logging moratorium restricted legal wood supply; its lifting by presidential directive in July 2023 was stayed by a court within weeks¹¹

Daylight-only movement and transit passes of TZS 7,500 to 15,000 per vehicle⁶

Tanzania's National Clean Cooking Strategy targets 80% of people using clean cooking by 2034, which would shrink urban charcoal demand¹²

Because charcoal crosses district and sometimes national borders (Kenyan routes run into Tanzania), every checkpoint is a point for fees or bribes. Where rules are too costly, trade moves to night routes and unmarked loads.

Many official statistics barely capture the trade: only about 25 countries reported charcoal production to FAO around 2000, and India's official figure of 15 million cubic metres of wood fuel a year compared with earlier estimates of about 290 million. A 2025 re-estimate using over 2,000 new data points raised African wood fuel figures by about 50%.

Sources

1. Global wood fuel production estimates and implications (Steel et al., Nature Communications 16, 6227; authors include FAO staff) Nature Portfolio, 2025
2. The charcoal transition: greening the charcoal value chain to mitigate climate change and improve local livelihoods FAO, 2017
3. Environmental Crisis or Sustainable Development Opportunity? Transforming the Charcoal Sector in Tanzania: A Policy Note World Bank, 2009
4. Sustainable Business Models for Tree-based Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Analysis of the Charcoal Value Chain in Kenya (Mutta) Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Formas project, 2020
5. Charcoal Market Conditions in Tanzania (TTCS Technical Report 4, Ishengoma) Tanzania Forest Conservation Group / TTCS project, 2016
6. Kenyan court stays President William Ruto's directive lifting a ban on logging Down To Earth, 2023
7. National Clean Cooking Strategy 2024-2034 (Tanzania) UNEP Law and Environment Assistance Platform, 2024