Renewable diesel and SAF: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Renewable diesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel are made by hydrotreating vegetable oils, used cooking oil and animal fats. They sell at a premium to fossil diesel and jet fuel set by mandates and credits, with feedstock and hydrogen the main costs.
Proxy US PPI: No. 2 diesel fuel index (BLS base period =100) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026There is no free public price for Renewable diesel and SAF itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item.
What its price moves with
Selected linkRenewable diesel and SAF and Crude oil
Monthly changes 0.70 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.93 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.69 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Renewable diesel and SAF ≈ 5.54 × (Crude oil)0.90 R² 0.68 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 8.9% higher Renewable diesel and SAF price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period =100) and $/bbl.Chart: Renewable diesel and SAF and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Renewable diesel and SAF price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.HVO and SAF replace diesel and jet fuel, so oil sets their base value before policy premiums. The diesel proxy correlates with crude at 0.70 for monthly moves and 0.93 for yearly moves, as expected for a refined fuel.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsPalm oil, its residues and used cooking oil are key HVO feedstocks. Against the diesel proxy, monthly moves correlate at 0.33 and yearly at 0.55, since the proxy tracks fossil diesel rather than HVO margins.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBiodiesel and HVO compete for the same oils and fats. The soybean oil proxy correlates with the diesel proxy at 0.48 for monthly moves and 0.73 for yearly moves, showing how fuel and vegetable oil markets are linked.
moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHydrotreating removes oxygen from the oils using hydrogen, so hydrogen is a key operating cost. The argon and hydrogen index correlates at -0.14 for monthly moves, as merchant hydrogen is sold on long contracts.
little or none co-movement month to month · 208 months Show chartsAviation mandates such as ReFuelEU and India's planned SAF blending targets create demand for SAF. The aviation proxy is an aircraft engine price index, so monthly moves correlate at just 0.01 and it says little about fuel.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsRefiners co-process vegetable oils or convert units to make HVO, and refinery prices follow diesel. The refinery index correlates at 0.89 for monthly moves and 0.98 for yearly moves, because both reflect fossil fuel prices.
strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.