Photoresists: Cycles

How new nodes lift resist value even in downturns

Resist demand follows wafer starts weighted towards advanced layers, so it dips in memory downturns but grows with each new node because more layers need advanced resists. Prices are contract-based and stable. The cycles that matter are supply shocks and strategic moves: Japan's 2019 curbs on Korea, the 2021 shortages, JSR's 2024 nationalisation, and the 2026 naphtha squeeze. Listed resist makers' semiconductor materials segments are the best visible cycle indicator.

Use semiconductor-materials segment margins of TOK, JSR and Shin-Etsu instead.

Booms and busts

1. 2019

   Japan required licences for exports of EUV photoresist, HF and fluorinated polyimide to Korea. Korea accelerated local suppliers such as Dongjin (indicative).

   not published

2. 2021-2022

   Chip shortage and fab expansions tightened resist supply; some Chinese fabs reported KrF resist shortages (indicative).

   not published

3. 2023-2024

   Memory downturn cut demand. Japan Investment Corporation took JSR private (indicative), framing resists as strategic.

   not published

4. 2026

   Hormuz near-closure cut Middle East naphtha that supplies over 40% of Japanese resist makers' feed; suppliers flagged shortages. JSR announced a Taiwan EUV resist plant.

   market $3.24 billion in 2026 (Mordor); no price data published

What drives the cycle

• Lithography mix. EUV and ArF immersion layers per wafer rise at each node, lifting value per wafer.
• Wafer starts. Memory cycles swing volumes.
• Export controls and localisation. Japanese, US and Chinese policy decide who can supply whom.
• Petrochemical supply. Naphtha shocks such as 2026 can interrupt monomer supply.

Metrics to track