Plasticisers: Cycles

How health rules and PVC demand move plasticiser prices

Plasticiser prices track 2-EH and anhydride prices with a conversion spread that widens when PVC demand is strong and collapses in oversupply. China drives the cycle: its prices for DOP, DOTP and DINP follow 2-EH, and surplus Chinese material is exported when local demand is weak. The floor is the integrated producer's cash cost; the ceiling is PVC compounders switching to cheaper esters or to other polymers. Regulation adds a slow structural shift away from low phthalates.

Conversion spread per tonne of ester; levels are published by ICIS and Chinese price services but were not retrieved.

Booms and busts

1. 2015-2020

   REACH authorisation and EU restriction of DEHP, DBP, BBP and DIBP (to 0.1% in articles from July 2020) shifted Europe to DINP, DPHP, DINCH and DOTP; US makers moved to DOTP.

   orthophthalate share of world use fell from about 60-65% to just over 55% (S&P Global CEH)

2. 2021

   Post-Covid demand for PVC and oxo-alcohol outages tightened 2-EH; plasticiser prices and spreads rose sharply.

   not public in sources reviewed

3. 2025

   Ample supply and weak demand pushed Chinese prices down and exports up; US tariffs hit EU exporters.

   China DOP fell RMB 1,700-1,750/t from January to November 2025; China DOP imports down 42% and exports up 35% Jan-Sep 2025 (ResourceWise)

What drives the cycle

• 2-EH and isononanol prices. Alcohol is about two-thirds of the molecule.
• Flexible PVC demand. Construction and cable markets, especially in China and India.
• Regulation. EU, US and Indian toy and medical rules move demand between esters.
• Trade remedies. Indian, US and other anti-dumping duties redirect flows.

Metrics to track