Coffee: Characteristics
Species, defects and the cup test that set value
What this tab covers The supply and physical characteristics of the commodity. Supply: current production, inventories and stocks, capacity utilisation, geographic and producer concentration, how fast supply responds to price, the project pipeline and capital spending, and logistics and export flows. Material: the physical and chemical properties that set its grade, price and end uses (for example purity and conductivity for metals, API gravity, sulfur and energy content for fuels, moisture, protein and fibre quality for crops).Supply volume characteristics
| Characteristic | Figure | What it means | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current production volume | 189.7 million 60-kg bags (about 11.4 Mt) forecast for 2026/27; 11.28 Mt green coffee in 2024 | Brazil (71.9 million bags) and Vietnam (32.5 million) dominate. USDA expects output to exceed consumption of 179.7 million bags in 2026/27. | USDA PSD, Oct 2026; FAOSTAT 2024 |
| Inventory and stock levels | world ending stocks 26.3 million bags (2026/27), 14.6% of consumption or about 7.5 weeks | Exchange-certified stocks were very low in May 2025: 0.93 million bags of arabica at ICE New York and 0.92 million bags of robusta at ICE London. The EU (9.3 million bags) and US (5.7 million) hold the largest consumer stocks. There have been no government buffer stocks since the ICA quotas ended in 1989. | USDA PSD, Oct 2026; ICO coffee market report, May 2025 |
| Capacity utilisation | farm capacity not published; Indian instant coffee about 60% utilised | Tree crops have no utilisation rate in the factory sense: output is set by trees in bearing and weather. In processing, CCL Products runs about 77,000 t a year of instant coffee capacity in India and Vietnam at roughly 60% utilisation (FY2026). | CCL Products, FY2026 |
| Geographic and producer concentration | Brazil 30.0%, top-3 (Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia) 55.3%, HHI 1,418; Brazil 37.9% in USDA's 2026/27 count | Formally unconcentrated, but Brazil's weather sets world prices. Roasting is more concentrated in a few firms (Nestle, JDE Peet's, Starbucks), but their combined share is not published in the sources used. | FAOSTAT 2024; USDA PSD 2026/27 |
| Supply elasticity | low in the short run; about 3 years from planting to first crop | Farmers can pick more carefully or fertilise more within a season, but new trees take about three years to bear. Frost or drought can damage trees for more than one season, which is why the 1975 Brazilian frost and the 2021 frost and drought caused multi-year price spikes. | content_v2 coffee chain; Radetzki & Warell |
| Project pipeline and CapEx | no project pipeline published; USDA expects a surplus of about 10 million bags in 2026/27 | New supply comes from replanting and expansion on existing farms after the 2025 price record ($9.05/kg arabica). Brazil's forecast is 71.9 million bags. Capital spending figures are not published for this smallholder-heavy crop. | USDA PSD 2026/27; World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Logistics and export flows | exports of all forms equal roughly 80% of output (about 151 million bags of imports against 190 million produced, 2026/27) | Green coffee ships in 60-kg bags or bulk container liners from Santos, Ho Chi Minh City, Cartagena and Mombasa to Hamburg, Antwerp, Trieste and US ports. Red Sea diversions since 2024 lengthened Vietnam-Europe routes around the Cape. The EU deforestation regulation adds traceability requirements. | USDA PSD 2026/27 (import total derived from the US 17.8% share); content_v2 trading notes |
Material characteristics Agricultural / soft commodity
Green coffee is graded on species, defects, bean size, moisture and cup quality. Arabica and robusta differ in caffeine and flavour, which sets end use: arabica for specialty and premium blends, robusta for espresso blends and instant coffee. Moisture matters for storage and shipment, and defect counts decide whether a lot is deliverable on the exchange.
| Property | Value / specification | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Species and caffeine | arabica about 1.2% caffeine, robusta about 2.2% (dry basis) | Robusta's higher caffeine and soluble solids suit instant coffee; arabica commands a price premium | Coffee science literature (indicative) |
| Moisture | 8-12.5% for exported green coffee | Outside this range beans mould or lose quality in transit; ICO rules discourage exports outside it | ICO Resolution 420 (2002) (indicative) |
| Defect count | specialty grade: zero primary and at most 5 full defects per 350 g sample | Defects (black, sour, insect-damaged beans) cut cup quality and price; exchange grades set defect limits too | Specialty Coffee Association green grading (indicative) |
| Screen size | graded in 1/64-inch screens, e.g. screen 17/18 for large beans | Larger, uniform beans roast evenly and earn premiums (Colombian Supremo, Kenyan AA) | Trade grading practice (indicative) |
| Cup score | 80 or more points on the SCA 100-point scale for specialty | Sets specialty premiums over the ICE Coffee C price | Specialty Coffee Association (indicative) |
| Processing method | washed, natural (dry) or honey/pulped natural | Determines flavour profile and which exchange grades a lot fits; ICE Coffee C deliveries are washed arabica | ICE Coffee C rules; content_v2 coffee chain |