Coffee: Criticality

Why a price swing can shake a whole economy

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	20.2%	2.5%	−$7.91 bn	0%	No	Largest importer (20.2% of world coffee import value in 2024, UN Comtrade); no meaningful production outside Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
EU	High	0.0%	48.8%	27.7%	−$9.71 bn	0%	No	Largest consuming region (Europe 30.3% of world consumption, ICO 2023/24); Germany (12.3%), France (7.7%) and Italy (7.0%) are top importers, and its deforestation regulation covers coffee.
India	Low	3.2%	0.5%	2.6%	+$879.2 m	389%	No	Exporter of about 70% of its 360,000-403,000 t crop (2025-26), record exports of $2.13 billion in FY2025-26; also imports green robusta for instant coffee re-export.
China	High	1.0%	2.2%	0.4%	−$782.1 m	28%	No	Growing consumer with production in Yunnan: about 1.9 million bags grown and 6.05 million bags imported in 2026/27 (USDA PSD); not among the top six importers by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	0.0%	3.8%	0.0%	−$1.71 bn	0%	No	Long-established importer with no production: about 7.0 million bags, 4.6% of world imports, in 2026/27 (USDA PSD).
Latin America	Low	49.2%	0.5%	45.3%	+$19.5 bn	333%	no list	Brazil (30% of output, 26.1% of export value) and Colombia (8.1% of export value) are the core suppliers; Central America and Mexico grow about 10.5% of world coffee (ICO 2023/24).
Middle East	High	0.2%	1.8%	0.0%	−$819.1 m	0%	no list	Small but growing importer with no production, about 3.05 million bags in 2026/27 (USDA PSD).
Australia	High	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	−$677.6 m	0%	No	Importer with no production, about 2.65 million bags in 2026/27 (USDA PSD).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Coffee is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list. Its stakes are livelihoods and export earnings: Morgan shows how countries dependent on tropical exports see foreign-exchange income, and even food imports, swing with prices. Supply risk is climatic and geographic, with Brazil and Vietnam growing about 48% of the crop. Climate change threatens to shrink land suited to Arabica. Coffee has no close substitute for its drinkers, though tea and other caffeinated drinks absorb some demand when prices spike.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,418 unconcentrated