Coffee: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Arabica coffee is priced on the New York exchange. Prices depend mostly on Brazilian and Colombian harvests, frost and drought, the Brazilian real, stock levels in exchange warehouses and steady global demand.
Market price World Bank Pink Sheet: Coffee, Arabica $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkCoffee and Cocoa
Monthly changes 0.24 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.26 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.36 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Coffee ≈ 2.06 × (Cocoa)0.62 R² 0.52 On this fit, a 10% higher cocoa price goes with a 6.1% higher coffee price over the long run. Units: $/kg and $/kg.Chart: Coffee and Cocoa prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Coffee price against Cocoa price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Coffee and cocoa are both tropical tree crops traded by the same commodity funds and roasting and confectionery firms. Their link is weak but has grown: monthly moves correlate at 0.24 overall and at 0.36 in the last five years, when both had weather shocks.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsTea and coffee compete for the same cup, but each market is driven by its own harvests. The data shows almost no link: monthly moves correlate at 0.06 and yearly moves at 0.20.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsBrazil is the largest producer of both coffee and sugar, so its weather and currency affect both. Monthly moves correlate at 0.22 and yearly moves at 0.33, a weak shared driver.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsCoffee farms use nitrogen fertiliser, and high prices lead farmers to apply less, cutting future yields. The monthly link is nil at minus 0.02, and yearly moves correlate at 0.36, consistent with a slow, indirect effect.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSome decaffeination uses pressurised carbon dioxide to extract caffeine, and CO2 is also used in packaging. It is a minor cost, and the data shows no meaningful link: monthly moves correlate at 0.06 and yearly moves at 0.04.
little or none co-movement month to month · 248 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.