Eggs: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Egg prices are set by flock sizes and bird flu, which can kill millions of laying hens and send prices to records within weeks. Feed costs and seasonal demand matter in normal times. The series is a US index.
Price index US producer price index: large eggs index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkEggs and Maize
Monthly changes -0.04 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.17 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.02 monthly changes Lead or lag −3 mo Eggs tends to lead by 3 months (r 0.14) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Eggs ≈ 10.1 × (Maize)0.56 R² 0.10 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 5.5% higher eggs price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and $/mt. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Eggs and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Eggs price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Maize is the main energy feed for laying hens, so it sets much of the cost of an egg. The index barely follows it: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.04 and yearly moves at 0.17, as bird flu swamps feed costs.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSoybean meal provides protein in layer feed, the main cost of keeping hens. The egg index shows no link: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.01 and yearly moves at 0.04, because bird flu supply shocks dominate.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsLaying hens and meat chickens are different flocks, but both are hit by bird flu. Culls of layers lift egg prices more than chicken, so the link is negative: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.23.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMethionine is an essential feed additive for laying hens, helping egg output and shell quality. Its price follows global feed demand, but amino acids have no public price series here, so the link is shown as text only.
Not enough overlapping price history to measure.Power and fuel for sheds, egg grading and transport are farm costs. The diesel proxy shows almost no link with the egg index: monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly moves at 0.12.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.