Eggs: Cycles
No world price: how feed and flock size set costs
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.There is no world egg price. Prices are local, set by flock size, feed costs and demand. Dear maize and soybean meal raise costs and can prompt flock cuts. Avian influenza is the dominant shock: large culls in the United States in recent years sent retail prices to records, which then fell back as flocks recovered. Demand peaks around holidays such as Easter and Christmas baking. Because the laying cycle is short, supply responds within months, much faster than for beef or tree crops.
No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.
Super-cycles in eggs
Eggs have no super-cycle. Prices are flat for long periods and then spike when disease cuts the laying flock, and collapse once flocks are rebuilt. Feed costs set the floor. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has dominated recent US and European markets: the US lost enough hens in 2025 to import eggs, and the average price hit a record before collapsing in 2026. There is no World Bank egg price series, and egg futures, once traded in New York, now exist mainly in China.
- 1920s-1970s
Egg futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which began in 1872 as the Butter and Cheese Exchange (Yergin).
no price series in the sources used
- 2025
Avian influenza culls cut the US laying flock; production fell to 8,765 million dozen from 9,076 million in 2024 and imports rose to 120.9 million dozen.
US egg price 373.7 cents/dozen in 2025 (WASDE series); Cal-Maine average net selling price $3.134/dozen in FY2025 (WASDE; Cal-Maine)
- 2026
Flocks were rebuilt and output rose to a forecast 9,160 million dozen, and prices collapsed.
67.0 cents/dozen in Q2 2026, against a forecast 103.5 cents for the year (WASDE, Oct 2026)
What drives the cycle
- Avian influenza. Culls of whole complexes remove supply suddenly; rebuilding takes months.
- Feed costs. Maize and soybean meal set the cost floor for egg production.
- Cage-free transition. Rules and retailer pledges raise costs and can tighten supply during conversions.
- Seasonal demand. Holiday baking in the West and cooler-weather demand in India lift prices at predictable times.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| US egg production, layer flock and prices | Monthly balance sheet and price forecast | USDA WASDE; USDA NASS monthly Chickens and Eggs report |
| Avian influenza detections in commercial flocks | Early warning of supply losses | USDA APHIS confirmations; WOAH (World Organisation for Animal Health) |
| Daily wholesale egg prices | Spot price signal | USDA AMS Egg Markets Overview |
| NECC daily egg rates by zone | Reference price in India | National Egg Coordination Committee |
| Dalian egg futures | Market expectation of Chinese egg prices | Dalian Commodity Exchange |