Groundnuts: Criticality

Monsoons, drought and the hidden aflatoxin threat

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	5.1%	0.0%	16.1%	+$634.0 m	107%	No	Fourth-largest producer (3.22 Mt in 2025/26, USDA), exporter of 0.63 Mt and the largest stockholder (1.45 Mt).
EU	High	0.0%	36.9%	9.4%	−$1.15 bn	0%	No	Largest importer (0.94 Mt in 2025/26, USDA); the Netherlands and Germany took 15.2% and 6.2% of world import value in 2024.
India	Low	20.8%	0.0%	21.4%	+$839.2 m	117%	No	Second-largest producer (13.07 Mt in-shell, 2025-26) and second-largest exporter by value (21.4% in 2024).
China	Low	34.1%	17.3%	5.9%	−$481.5 m	99%	No	Largest producer (18.4 Mt, USDA 2025/26) and also the largest importer by value (17.3% in 2024).
Japan	High	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	−$62.8 m	16%	No	Importer of food-grade kernels; not among the top six importers by value in 2024.
Latin America	Low	4.3%	8.7%	35.8%	+$1.05 bn	198%	no list	Argentina is the largest exporter (1.15 Mt in 2025/26) and Brazil exports 0.48 Mt (USDA); Mexico imports 0.24 Mt.
Middle East	High	0.1%	1.4%	0.4%	−$43.4 m	–	no list	Importer of kernels for snacks; no significant production in the data.
Australia	High	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	−$40.3 m	27%	No	Small producer; not significant in trade data.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Groundnuts are not on mineral critical lists, but they matter for nutrition and income in South Asia and Africa. They supply cheap protein and cooking oil, and are a cash crop in the Sahel. Rain-fed crops are exposed to drought and to monsoon failure in India, and heat and poor storage raise aflatoxin risk. Morgan shows how West African countries dependent on exports like peanuts saw wheat imports swing with export earnings (pdf p. 318). For oil, soy, palm and sunflower oils substitute readily (Geman, pdf p. 160); in confectionery, other nuts partly do.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,725 moderately concentrated