Groundnuts: Cycles

A 27% jump in a year, near a 15-year real low

The World Bank groundnut price was $1,563/t in September 2026, up 27% on a year earlier ($1,235) and 6% above five years ago ($1,476). The ten-year range is $1,160 to $2,056; the post-2000 high of $2,528 came earlier. In real 2010 dollars the annual average was $2,216 in 2012, $1,878 in 2020 and $1,164 in 2025, near its 15-year low. Harvests in India, China, Argentina and the US drive the swings. So do vegetable-oil prices, since groundnut oil competes with soy, palm and sunflower oils (Geman, pdf p. 160). Supply adjusts each season.

Groundnuts price

Chart: Groundnuts monthly price

Chart: Groundnuts annual real price

Super-cycles in groundnuts

Groundnut prices move with vegetable oils and with weather in a few big exporters. The World Bank groundnut series (from 1980) peaked at $2,400/t in November 1980, fell to $585/t in 1985, reached a record $2,528/t in December 2011 and was $1,563/t in September 2026. Groundnut oil, quoted since 1960, rose from $334/t to a record $2,502/t in December 2012. Booms tend to be short: the crop is annual and India, China and Argentina respond to good prices within a season. Nominal annual averages ranged from $723/t to $1,601/t in 1990-2009 and from $1,241/t to $2,443/t in 2010-2025, a higher plateau as Chinese demand grew.

1. 1973-1974

   The Sahel drought cut West African exports, and the general commodity boom lifted all oils.

   Groundnut oil from $401/t (October 1972) to $1,139/t (October 1974), World Bank monthly

2. 2007-2008

   The biofuel-era vegetable oil boom and low stocks drove both nuts and oil up.

   Groundnuts $753/t (April 2006) to $1,750/t (January 2008); groundnut oil $2,427/t (August 2008)

3. 2011-2012

   The US crop fell to 1.66 Mt in 2011/12 and India's to 4.33 Mt in 2012/13 after a weak monsoon (USDA PSD).

   Groundnuts to a record $2,528/t (December 2011); 2012 average $2,443/t, back to $1,180/t by May 2014

4. 2019-2020

   China's imports roughly tripled, from 0.47 Mt in 2018/19 to 1.35 Mt in 2019/20 and 1.37 Mt in 2020/21 (USDA PSD).

   $1,235/t (January 2019) to $2,050/t (April 2020)

5. 2023-2025

   Tight supply lifted prices in 2023-24; large Indian and Argentine crops in 2024-25 pushed them down.

   $2,056/t (January 2024) to $1,200/t (October 2025); $1,563/t in September 2026

What drives the cycle

• Indian monsoon and Gujarat rainfall. India's kharif crop is rain-fed; a weak monsoon cuts exportable supply and lifts Asian prices.
• Chinese import demand. China's buying for crushing and food swings by several hundred thousand tonnes a year.
• Vegetable oil prices. Crush value sets the floor for lower grades.
• Aflatoxin rules and quality. EU limits decide which origins can supply premium markets.
• Indian MSP and procurement. Sets a floor for Indian farm prices and affects how much stock comes back to market.

Metrics to track