Manganese: Cycles

A quiet price, set by one assessment for China

Manganese ore has no exchange price; the usual reference is CRU's assessment for 44% ore delivered to China, which averaged $5.53 per tonne unit in 2024 and about $4.50 in 2025 (USGS). By October 2025 the year-to-date spot price was 22% below the 2024 average. Over 2021-25 the annual price ranged only between $4.50 and $5.97. Demand tracks steel, so manganese rides the Chinese construction cycle. Supply shocks are mostly physical, such as the cyclone that shut a large Australian mine in 2024.

US price, Metallurgical ore, 44% Mn, CIF China (CRU)

Super-cycles in manganese

Manganese has no exchange price and its cycles are those of steel, above all Chinese steel. Ore was long sold on annual contracts, where one large supplier and one large buyer settled first and the rest followed (Handbook of Primary Commodities). The China boom of the 2000s moved the trade to spot and index pricing. Since then prices have swung with Chinese steel output, port stocks and supply shocks in South Africa, Gabon and Australia. In 2021-2025 the CRU index for 44% ore delivered to China stayed between $4.50 and $5.97 per dry metric tonne unit (USGS), a narrow band compared with earlier spikes.

1. 1990s-early 2000s

   Annual benchmark contracts between major miners and Japanese and European steelmakers set prices. Low steel growth kept prices subdued.

   price series not available in the sources used

2. 2004-2008

   China's steel output boom pulled in ore from South Africa, Gabon and Australia faster than mines could expand, and trade moved to spot pricing. The 2008 crisis ended the spike.

   price series not available in the sources used

3. 2021-2022

   Post-COVID steel recovery and freight costs lifted delivered prices.

   CRU 44% Mn ore CIF China averaged $5.27/dmtu (2021) and $5.97 (2022) (USGS MCS 2026)

4. 2023-2024

   Weak Chinese property demand pushed the average down in 2023. In 2024 a cyclone shut a large mine in northern Australia, removing high-grade supply and lifting prices.

   $4.80/dmtu (2023), $5.53 (2024) (USGS MCS 2026)

5. 2025-2026

   The Australian mine restarted in May 2025 while Ghana and Gabon expanded, and world steel use was flat. Gabon announced a ban on ore exports from 2029.

   $4.50/dmtu (2025 average); October 2025 year-to-date spot was 22% below the 2024 average (USGS MCS 2026)

What drives the cycle

• Chinese steel output. China takes about two-thirds of seaborne ore by value (65.3% in 2024, UN Comtrade), so its steel production and property cycle set demand.
• South African logistics and power. South Africa ships most seaborne ore; rail and port capacity, and power for smelters, cap supply.
• Gabon and Australia supply events. Concentrated high-grade supply means a cyclone or a policy change (Gabon's 2029 export ban) moves prices.
• India's steel growth. India is the second-largest ore importer and a large ferroalloy exporter; its steel expansion adds steady demand.
• Battery cathode chemistry. Manganese-rich cathodes (LMFP, high-manganese NMC) could add demand for high-purity sulphate; LFP uses none.

Metrics to track